Energy security needs pipelines, not promises

Few issues are as urgent and as poorly understood as Australia’s energy policy. While we build up renewable energy to replace an ageing and increasingly uneconomic coal fleet, we are more dependent on gas to support the grid. Yet we are at risk of more severe and more frequent gas shortfalls as soon as 2028, and we lack the commitment to investing in a viable long-term solution.
Australia needs to build a national pipeline network to ensure domestic production and supply.
Energy isn’t just another commodity. It’s the invisible infrastructure behind every product we make, every commodity we mine, every service we deliver and every aspiration we hold for continued stability, security and resilience. Energy underpins our current standard of living and future prosperity.
According to analysis by the Grattan Institute, we are at risk of increasing gas shortfalls: 130 days of shortfall in 2025, then 201 in 2026, 266 in 2027, and up to 322 in 2028. All this despite being one of the world’s largest gas producers.
This paradox is driven by extensive exports, domestic price caps and an over-reliance on global maritime supply chains for critical energy imports. As recently discussed in The Strategist, building import terminals for liquified natural gas at locations such as Port Kembla and Geelong is a reactive approach that overlooks the need for long-term resilience. Considering the government’s Future Gas Strategy extends to 2050, Australia needs to invest in sovereign, sustainable and long-term solutions.
Countries with strategic intent don’t just chase export earnings; they build resilience. They use domestic gas supply and national pipeline infrastructure to underwrite economic sovereignty and develop complementary domestic industries. In the United States, for example, shale gas development has transformed global markets while also revitalising domestic manufacturing. It has created jobs and secured affordable energy for households. Closer to home, countries across Asia are investing in energy corridors that ensure both competitiveness and security.
Meanwhile, Australia is doing what it too often does: relying on luck, timing and long-held assumptions that the market will sort it out. It won’t. The convergence of economics, geopolitics and domestic industrial policies too significantly distorts the market for a purely laissez-faire approach.
Australia needs a more strategic approach to energy infrastructure. The consequences of our current reactiveness are real. Industry is slowing. Energy costs are rising. Investment is stalling. As the government signals commitment to gas, it should equally commit to building the backbone of long-term energy security: a national integrated pipeline network connecting Australia’s gas basins to consumers.
Pipelines are important economic enablers. While pipelines currently connect the states and territories, excluding Western Australia, capacity limits hinder the network significantly. It needs upgrading and expanding. Unlike other infrastructure assets, Australia seems content to treat gas as someone else’s problem and is slow to step-in.
The government is often left with problems too difficult for the market to solve on its own; if we don’t incentivise private capital to build pipelines now, the cost will fall on taxpayers later. Opportunity costs of a failure to act lie in lost jobs, declining industry and weakened geopolitical leverage.
The Beetaloo Basin, a vast untapped resource in the Northern Territory, offers a critical opportunity. It is likely to be the lowest cost and lowest emissions source of gas capable of fulfilling Australia’s domestic needs. APA Group is in the first stage of investment in the basin, connecting it to the NT’s gas market. This is a crucial step for energy security in the NT, where approximately 80 percent of power generation relies on natural gas.
Maximising the project’s value requires connecting it to the east-coast market. Domestic gas produced in the north and transported to southern demand centres should deliver significantly lower cost and lower emissions than imported liquified gas, particularly due to the government’s existing price controls.
This isn’t just about resources; it’s about national capability. We can’t have a modern defence industry, a competitive manufacturing base, or even affordable food processing without affordable, reliable energy. Doing nothing is not a neutral position, it’s a choice that leaves us weaker.
To make this vision a reality, the government must provide certain guarantees to attract private capital. Investors need confidence that if they build pipelines, the gas will flow. This means establishing clear, long-term supplier agreements and maintaining stable policy settings to reduce risk and encourage investment.
In late 2024, the Senate Select Committee on Energy Planning and Regulation rightly recommended that the Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water update the 2019 Strategic Energy Plan. This new plan must be strategic in a real sense: it must recognise Australia’s energy security challenges and the inability to outsource energy production. It must commit to domestic solutions.
National resilience relies on stable energy supply, now and in the future, and it needs pipelines to complement new supply. A national pipeline network aimed at supporting domestic industry and Australian households isn’t just common sense. It’s nation-building.