Tag Archive for: Matthew Page

The five-domains update

Sea state  

Warships from the US, Japanese and South Korean navies are in Sydney to take part in the annual Exercise Pacific Vanguard. Their visits to Garden Island Naval Base are subject to strict counter-Covid precautions and shore leave is not permitted. The crews from USS Rafael Peralta, JS Makinami, ROKS Wang Geon and Australia’s Hobart-class guided missile destroyer HMAS Brisbane will build their cooperative seamanship and warfighting skills during the exercise.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has opened his country’s fourth Mediterranean naval base in Gargoub, 255 kilometres west of Alexandria and near the Libyan border. The inauguration was attended by leaders of both the United Arab Emirates and Libya in a sign of the warming diplomatic ties among these nations since Libya came under a new administration. Egyptian media says the new base includes an airstrip and will support the country’s military modernisation in the region. Egypt says it is strategically positioned to secure shipping lines to the nation’s north and northwest.

Flight path

A Philippine Air Force C-130 Hercules transport aircraft crashed after missing the runway at Jolo airport in the country’s south, killing 52 people, including three civilians on the ground. Forty-nine of the 96 soldiers and crew it carried were killed in the crash on 4 July and the remainder were injured in the Philippine military’s worst-ever air disaster. The soldiers were on their way to join counterterrorism operations against Islamist separatist group Abu Sayyaf. Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana has ordered an investigation into the crash.

Chinese state-run media outlet the Global Times reports that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force is using artificial intelligence to train pilots in aerial combat. It says Chinese pilots are matching wits with AI systems to improve the pilots’ decision-making and combat skills and ‘training’ the AI systems, which may to be integrated into future warplanes. While it’s not clear how much progress China has made with airborne AI, its integration is at the forefront of military developments and a key to human–machine teaming in future air combat.

Rapid fire

The Australian Defence Force has suspended operations of its MRH-90 Taipan helicopters due to safety concerns. The ADF has released little information other than confirmation that the issues relate to the aircraft’s maintenance. This isn’t the first time Taipans have been grounded. The manufacturer, Airbus, and the ADF are collaborating to resolve the problems; meanwhile, the ADF’s other helicopters, including Tigers, Chinooks, Black Hawks and Seahawks, are operating normally.

South Korean defence company Hanwha Defense says the Republic of Korea Army will next year trial the Hanwha AS21 Redback infantry fighting vehicle, which is one of two contenders in phase 3 of the Australian Army’s Land 400 project. The Redback will be tested by an ROK Army mechanised unit.

Final frontier

Mary Wallace ‘Wally’ Funk, a veteran pilot now 82, is set to fly to space as Jeff Bezos’s ‘honoured guest’ on his spacecraft New Shepard. Funk was the youngest graduate of NASA’s ‘Mercury 13’ Women in Space program in the 1960s. The program was later cancelled when NASA deemed women unfit for space travel, even though they’d outperformed their male counterparts in key aspects of their training. Now Funk is set to become the world’s oldest space traveller on New Shepard’s first flight carrying people. Take-off is scheduled for 20 July, the anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing.

Two Chinese astronauts exhibited their country’s first indigenous space suit for nearly seven hours during a spacewalk on Sunday when they installed parts of China’s Tiangong space station. Alongside prototype helmet cameras, the Feitian (literally, ‘Fly to Sky’) suits sport what its makers say is an innovative design with decorative ribbons and a ‘slimming’ visual finish. The three-month mission, China’s first crewed space flight in five years, is an important step in its ambitious space program.

Wired watchtower

A ransomware attack on US-based IT company Kaseya could impact up to 1,500 businesses. Last Friday, hackers successfully disabled Kaseya’s customer IT systems on five continents, forcing hundreds of supermarket closures in Sweden and knocking New Zealand schools and day-care facilities offline. Increasing ransomware attacks on US firms, including Microsoft Exchange, SolarWinds and Colonial Pipeline, have exposed major vulnerabilities in US cybersecurity. In response, the Biden administration has made sweeping reforms to cybersecurity standards, established a cybersecurity taskforce and appointed the first national cyber director.

On Monday, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) announced investigations into two US-listed Chinese companies, Full Truck Alliance and Kanzhun, citing potential risks to national data and security. These inquiries follow a similar CAC probe into popular ride-hailing app Didi a day earlier. The CAC’s cybersecurity review appears to be retaliation for the US’s designation of five Chinese technology companies as national security risks in March. But it also demonstrates China’s concerns about tech giants’ growing power.

The threat spectrum

Planet A 

A report submitted to UNESCO recommends that Australia’s Great Barrier Reef be classified as ‘in danger’ in light of the decades of damage from coral bleaching events and the ongoing threats to the reef from the effects of climate change. Environment Minister Sussan Ley said Australia was ‘blindsided’ by the recommendation and alluded to the role politics plays in the decisions of international bodies like the China-chaired UNESCO. The government’s energy policy includes continued support for fossil fuels, which make Australia one of the world’s largest per capita emitters of greenhouse gases.

Tourism is Queensland’s third largest industry, but mining is the largest, and the government is unlikely to shift away from coal despite concerns that tourism will decrease with reef degradation driven by warming ocean temperatures. The government’s commitment to coal puts Australia at odds with strategic partners, including G7 members the US and UK, which have pledged to divest from coal as part of their commitments to combat climate change.

Democracy watch

Hundreds of Palestinians are protesting in the West Bank following the death of Nizar Banat while in the custody of the Palestinian Authority. Banat was an activist and political candidate known for his social media videos on the PA’s security ties with the Israeli military, and political corruption.

Mahmoud Abbas became president in Palestine’s first elections in 2005. He is still in office, and has indefinitely postponed this year’s elections because of a dispute with Israel about the voting eligibility of Palestinians residing in East Jerusalem. Abbas’s critics have accused him of being out of touch with the Palestinian people, who are beginning to lose faith in the possibility of a two-state solution. Yet Israel and Western donors continue to support Abbas and the PA over fears that Hamas will take power if Abbas is removed.

The protests, however, have highlighted the increasing authoritarianism of Abbas’s government and the deteriorating respect for human rights demonstrated by PA security forces.

Information operations

US authorities have seized the domain names of 33 Iranian government–affiliated websites hosted on US-owned domains, joining over 100 others seized last year. The 33 sites were operated by the Iranian Islamic Radio and Television Union, a government-linked outfit that imitates news organisations. The US alleged that the union and other government-linked groups conducted covert influence operations during the 2020 US federal election. The 2021 US national intelligence assessment named Iran, China and Russia as the primary foreign actors that attempted election interference in 2020.

The US action comes days after Iran’s president-elect, conservative hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, ruled out meeting with President Joe Biden, saying that Iran’s missile program and support for regional militias were not up for discussion. Raisi’s remarks could be aimed at shoring up conservative support before he takes office in August or posturing for a better deal as Iran’s nuclear deal talks resume.

Follow the money

On 24 June, the main pro-democratic newspaper in Hong Kong, Apple Daily, in operation since 1995, printed its last edition, of 1 million copies. Using the controversial national security law, the Hong Kong Security Bureau arrested Jimmy Lai, the owner of Apple Daily’s parent company Next Media, and five other executives. The authorities have frozen approximately US$2.3 million worth of assets from three companies—Apple Daily, Apple Daily Printing and AD Internet—in an effort to silence the company and as an example to like-minded Hong Kong news media.

Next Media has requested that the Security Bureau partially unfreeze the companies’ assets so they can pay outstanding wages to their employees. In return, Hong Kong authorities have asked for employees’ details and ‘sensitive information’. The company has yet to make a decision, and the Next Media Trade Union has emphasised that the privacy of employees is the priority. However, if the company does hand over information, it may prompt more companies to reassess their business holdings in Hong Kong in light of the uncertainties raised by the security law and its impact on Hong Kong’s economy.

Terror byte

Rwandan prosecutors have requested a life sentence for US Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient Paul Rusesabagina, who faces nine terrorism charges linked to his opposition political party, the Rwanda Movement for Democratic Change, including membership and financing of a terrorist group.

Rusesabagina was the subject of an Oscar-nominated film, Hotel Rwanda, which focused on his role in sheltering 1,268 ethnic Tutsi and moderate Hutu refugees during the 1994 genocide. He has since been living in exile in the US and Belgium, becoming a prominent critic of Rwanda’s growing authoritarianism.

Rusesabagina alleges that in August 2020 he was forcibly removed from Dubai to Rwanda on a Greek chartered airline under false pretences, saying he was led to believe that the flight was destined for Burundi. A Rwandan court has ruled that these allegations are false.

The Rwandan government has faced multiple accusations of spying on international dissidents in Canada, Australia and South Africa. The rules governing extradition of alleged terrorists are haphazard under international law due to lack of consensus on the definition of terrorism. Rusesabagina’s alleged deception and forced rendition expose the lengths authoritarian regimes may go to to capture dissidents in defiance of international legal norms.

The five-domains update

Sea state

Australia has committed $175 million to upgrade the Lombrum naval base on Manus Island in Papua New Guinea. The project will improve electricity and road infrastructure, provide accommodation for around 400 PNG military personnel, and support increased maritime patrols and cooperation with Australia. A significant naval base during World War II, Lombrum remains strategically consequential for Australia and the US, both of which pledged to improve the facility in 2018. This is the largest concrete financial commitment made to the project; however, commencement has been delayed by Covid-19.

The US Navy detonated 18,144 kilograms of explosives near its newest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, to assess how the ship’s critical systems would cope in battle conditions. The shock test, which the US Geological Survey recorded at 3.9 on the Richter scale, is part of a six-month improvement process prior to the Gerald R. Ford’s first deployment, and the first of its kind to be conducted on an aircraft carrier in 34 years.

Flight path

On 16 June, two Russian Tu-160 bombers escorted by Su-27 and Su-37 fighters conducted an eight-hour mission over the Baltic Sea, prompting NATO aircraft to scramble. Italian F-35s, Danish F-16s and Swedish JAS-39s were mobilised to identify and track the Russian aircraft. This came just days after the Italian F35s, on their first-ever deployment to NATO’s Baltic air-policing mission, had a close encounter with a Russian Su-30SM fighter. It’s just one in a series of Russian exercises over the Baltic and the Pacific this year.

The US Air Force has issued a ‘sources sought’ notice for new aerial refuelling aircraft to bridge the gap between the completion of the over-budget and deficiency-laden KC-46A program and the development of a next-generation tanker. The request coincided with the announcement that two more category 1 deficiencies had been identified with the aircraft, which the air force has asked the contractor, Boeing, to address at its own expense, bringing the total out-of-pocket costs for the US$4.9 billion contract to more than US$5 billion since it began in 2011.

Rapid fire

The Australian Defence Force recently conducted Exercise Sea Explorer at Cowley Beach in North Queensland, with around 1,800 personnel. It marked the army’s first deployment of its M1A1 Abrams tanks on navy landing ships, which were used to practise beach landings along with Tiger and CH-47 Chinook helicopters. Joint amphibious training will continue next month when the ADF engages in Exercise Sea Raider as part of the biennial multinational Talisman Sabre exercises.

On 17 June, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense announced that the US had agreed to sell two weapon systems to Taiwan, effectively initiating the US$2.8 billion deal first approved in 2020. Although the details of the two procurement contracts haven’t been fully disclosed, they are believed to involve the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and Harpoon coastal defence system, which will greatly improve the island’s counterstrike capabilities.

Final frontier

Last week, China successfully launched its Shenzhou-12 spacecraft with three astronauts on board, its first manned space mission in five years. The three-month space outing is the third of 11 missions to build China’s Tiangong space station, expected to be completed next year. The project has raised concerns in Washington that China’s space program, which has strong ties with the Chinese military, may soon rival that of the US. In April, US Space Command warned of the threat posed by China’s rapidly maturing space enterprise and the development of military space capabilities.

On 15 June, Japan’s parliament passed legislation that allows companies to prospect for, extract and utilise space resources with government approval, joining the US, Luxembourg and the United Arab Emirates which have enacted similar laws as signatories to the NASA-led Artemis Accords. Japan’s Hayabusa and Hayabusa2 missions landed on and extracted mineral samples from asteroids in 2010 and 2020, paving the way for potential asteroid mining. However, states including Russia and New Zealand have called for greater international rather than national space mining regulation.

Wired watchtower

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has cited the success of the recent covert ‘Operation Ironside’ as a reason to support three bills that propose to expand authorisation for the Australian Federal Police and the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission to access and collect data. One of them, the controversial Surveillance Legislation Amendment (Identify and Disrupt) Bill, is now under review by a parliamentary committee and would allow new warrants enabling the AFP and ACIC to disrupt data, collect network activity and control personal online accounts. The Australian Law Council warns that these measures would further distance Australia from other Five Eyes alliance members that incorporate judicial safeguards for such surveillance.

Live Eye Surveillance, a US-based online surveillance company, provides a US$399 monthly service that remotely monitors businesses’ CCTV footage 24/7 using ‘process analysts’ based in India. The service includes ‘reporting suspicious activities’ and monitoring tasks, allowing operators to intervene by talking to employees through a speaker. 7-Eleven, Shell, Dairy Queen and Holiday Inn are listed as customers but the service may actually put lives at risk by startling armed robbers.

The women, peace and security update

Gendered disinformation targets women in politics and journalism

Writing for the Council on Foreign Relations’ Women Around the World blog, Melanne Verveer and Lucina Di Meco argue that gendered disinformation thrives on social media platforms under the guise of free speech, threatening women’s rights and democratic freedoms.

In a recent study, 90% of women in the global south reported experiencing targeted online abuse, including threats and ‘vicious’ gendered disinformation campaigns. Verveer and Di Meco contend that these campaigns emerge from patriarchal and authoritarian structures and are designed to undermine and discredit women, particularly women of colour and women in leadership. The portrayal of women as ‘untrustworthy, unintelligent, too emotional, or sexual’ can also incite or encourage gendered violence.

Verveer and DI Meco argue that gendered misinformation erodes democratic standards by discouraging women from seeking positions of power or engaging in fields like journalism and politics. They also argue that official disinformation campaigns targeting female political opponents ‘erode liberal values and democratic principles all together’.

The solutions they propose include working with platform administrators, in close consultation with female leaders and activists, to develop robust standards and ensure women in vulnerable fields have the online tools and support networks they need to respond to gendered disinformation campaigns.

The impact of Lebanon’s socioeconomic crisis on women

On 25 May, the UN deputy special coordinator for Lebanon, Najat Rochdi, briefed the UN Security Council’s informal expert group on WPS on the ongoing socioeconomic crisis in Lebanon and its impact on women, which has been compounded by the Covid-19 lockdown, the Port of Beirut explosion that rocked the country in mid-2020, and the subsequent resignation of the entire Lebanese government.

Rochdi noted that the crisis had deepened gender inequalities in Lebanon and reiterated the UN’s calls for a reform-oriented government that strengthens female participation and supports recovery efforts that are inclusive of women.

In the aftermath of the Beirut port disaster, women in households in the explosion radius were disproportionately impacted. A 2020 UN Women report found that 51% of the affected population identified as female-headed households. The report also noted that the explosion had reduced access to food, first aid and reproductive health services, and increased the risk of homelessness and of gender-based violence.

Constitutional crisis in Samoa exposes barriers to women’s political representation

A piece by Kerryn Baker in Australian Outlook argues that women’s political representation is at the core of Samoa’s constitutional crisis. On 9 April, the country held an election and Fiame Naomi Mata‘afa, who leads the FAST party, edged out incumbent Prime Minister Tuila‘epa Sa‘ilele Malielegaoi and his Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) by a slim majority. However, the HRPP has challenged FAST’s victory and Tuila‘epa has refused to recognise Fiame as the new prime minister.

The disagreement between the HRPP and FAST party centres on the interpretation of a provision in the Samoan constitution mandating that women make up 10% of parliamentarians. Five women were elected, bringing women’s representation to just 9.8%.

Baker theorises that the impasse could result in wider vilification and opposition to gender quotas in parliament. Currently, 6.8% of senior political positions in Pacific island nations are held by women, suggesting a potentially hostile environment. If Fiame is officially recognised as prime minister, this is likely to bolster support for women’s political participation in the region.

UN Women focuses on sustainability and social justice

UN Women has released a briefing on its forthcoming feminist plan for sustainability and social justice, which aims to respond to the ways in which Covid-19 has exacerbated gender inequality and amplified women’s vulnerabilities around the world. The plan will provide practical guidance and constructive policy suggestions to create a more ‘equal and sustainable future’.

McKinsey Global Institute has estimated that during the pandemic, women were 1.8 times more likely to lose their jobs than men. Women also take on around 75% of unpaid and underpaid domestic labour.

The plan sets out three priorities: ‘building a caring economy’ for essential healthcare workers ‘generating sustainable livelihoods for all’ to provide a robust social-protection system for women, especially those involved in informal economy; and ‘ensuring a gender-just, green transition’ by creating and investing in jobs focusing on sustainability for women.

Gender and the operational effectiveness of UN peace operations

The Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security published a report on how gender impacts UN peace operations, based on interviews and case studies from UN peacekeeping missions in Cyprus, Lebanon and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

One of the report’s key findings was that, despite women being under-represented in peacekeeping operations—they make up less than 5% of all military personnel, 11% of personnel in formed police units and 28% of individual police officers—women’s participation improved community engagement across the various missions.

The findings highlight the importance of uniformed women peacekeepers in interacting with women and girls and building trust in communities. Their presence helps to change community perceptions of gender roles and careers and, in some cases, leads to increased reporting of sexual harassment and violence against women.

Evidence suggests that their presence also helps deter sexual misconduct by male personnel during missions, though this adds an extra burden of responsibility on women to monitor their colleagues. The study also found that, while women were more effective in some peacekeeping areas, labelling them as the ‘most effective’ peacekeepers left them with no room for error in their performance and led to a ‘sense of disenfranchisement amongst uniformed men’.

The threat spectrum

Planet A  

A sustained mouse plague has consumed grain and hay stocks and damaged machinery on thousands of Australian farms this year, reducing the country’s overall crop value by an estimated $1 billion. While rodent populations usually contract rapidly following a major infestation, the CSIRO says there’s no sign of that happening yet, with dire potential consequences for Australia’s agricultural sector and food security.

Events like droughts and bushfires, which can reduce predator numbers, followed by rains tend to support higher rodent populations. The rising likelihood of compound intense weather events under climate-change conditions may make mouse plagues more frequent and more severe. Milder winters also support rodent booms, as is already being seen across the US.

Conventional pest-control methods, such as poisoning, poses its own risks. New rodenticides, including genetic biocontrol, are undergoing approval, but experts warn that they may also kill rodents’ natural predators and even endanger humans through the food chain.

Democracy watch

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega has jailed 13 opposition leaders, including four potential presidential candidates, for ‘national security’ reasons ahead of elections in November. There appears to be a lack of substance behind the allegations, leading commentators to view them as targeted crackdowns on political opposition.

Nicaragua’s government-linked electoral board has also ruled that political candidates charged with dissent should be disqualified from running for office. Observers have labelled the state of affairs a ‘democracy crisis’, and Nicaraguan analyst Eliseo Nunez says the president ‘is on the verge of ending all political competition’ and establishing a ‘dictatorship’.

More than 108,000 Nicaraguans have left the country since Ortega’s government violently suppressed nationwide anti-government protests in 2018. At the time at least 325 people were killed and hundreds were detained.

The Biden administration has pledged to prioritise stability in Central America and is now threatening to sanction Nicaragua, whose economy depends on preferential US exports and loans. It’s feared, however, that severe economic contraction will cause further mass migration and instability.

Information operations

Network analysis company Graphika has released a report exposing a covert Russian information operation targeting American far-right groups on fringe online platforms. The campaign began two days after last year’s presidential election and involves actors linked to a previous campaign attributed to the Russian troll farm the ‘Internet Research Agency’ financed by Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The campaign has been spreading divisive and inflammatory narratives, including allegations of voter fraud, racist attacks on US Vice President Kamala Harris and paedophilia accusations against President Joe Biden. Graphika found the campaign was most active on the far-right discussion forum patriots.win, where 20 inauthentic accounts spread the narratives that were then reposted by accounts on Gab and Parler.

But the campaign’s content failed to gain traction in the wider right-wing community. The report’s findings demonstrate that, while Russian actors can create a direct line to online far-right communities through these platforms, a greater threat is posed by homegrown extremist actors.

Follow the money

As China is rapidly developing its economy and technology, climate change looks set to become one of the major threats to the country’s economic progress. President Xi Jinping has pledged that China will become carbon neutral by 2060. But rising sea levels pose threats to the critical special economic zones along its east coast. Cities such as Guangzhou and Dongguan have been recognised as some of the world’s most vulnerable areas to sea-level rises.

The Financial Times reports that trillions of dollars of China’s economic activity could come under threat, particularly in Shanghai, which was home to more than US$900 billion of economic activity in 2019. Many of China’s most important R&D and manufacturing hubs are condensed along its seaboard.

Although Xi has declared his net-zero ambitions, China has yet to provide a clear roadmap to address the threat of sea-level rise and climate change more broadly or to explain how the 2060 goal will be achieved.

Terror byte

French President Emmanuel Macron announced his intention to end Operation Barkhane and withdraw the 5,100 French troops working alongside Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger to combat ongoing Islamic insurgents in West Sahel. The French-led offensive was launched in 2013, but Macron indicated that France’s presence could not continue forever, despite his description of the region as ‘the epicenter of international terrorism’. The Sahel’s ongoing instability has been due to a combination of terrorist attacks, climate change and ethnic conflicts.

Rising troop deaths, jihadists’ continued foothold in the region and growing discontent over France’s military presence from politicians and residents in the Sahel has led to dwindling support for the operation in both France and G5 countries. Discussions to replace it with a broader international effort will be held in the next few weeks. The continuing insecurity in the Sahel calls into question the efficacy of multilateral military deployments in quelling terrorism in the region.

The five-domains update

Sea state

The US Navy has christened its new littoral combat ship USS Canberra, the second US vessel to be named after the Australian capital and the only ship in the current fleet to be named after a foreign capital. Australia’s defence attaché to the US, Commodore Matthew Hudson, said the ship’s naming, coinciding with the 70th anniversary of the ANZUS treaty, speaks to the ‘strength of friendship’ between the US and Australia. Independence-class trimarans like the Canberra have faced ongoing engine problems and other issues, which the US Navy has recently launched a taskforce to address.

Iran’s largest warship has sunk in the Gulf of Oman after a mysterious onboard fire. The supply ship IRIS Kharg was evacuated, with its crew suffering 33 minor injuries and no casualties. The incident occurred near the sensitive shipping corridor of the Strait of Hormuz. The sinking of the Kharg represents a significant loss to Iran’s naval capabilities, as the purpose-built oiler and cargo ship was often relied on for the country’s long-distance naval operations.

Flight path

On 4 June, the US Navy conducted a historic aerial refuelling using a Boeing MQ-25 Stingray UAV to refuel an F/A-18 Super Hornet, the first time an unmanned tanker has refuelled a manned aircraft. The head of the navy’s unmanned aviation and strike weapons program, Rear Admiral Brian Corey, said, ‘This flight lays the foundation for integration into the carrier environment, allowing for greater capability toward manned–unmanned teaming concepts’, noting that the MQ-25 ‘will greatly increase the range and endurance of the future carrier air wing.’

Forbes journalist David Axe has examined the US Air Force’s plans to expand its base network and distribute airpower across the Indo-Pacific to mitigate the threat of Chinese missile barrages during wartime. Two bases, Kadena on the Japanese island of Okinawa and Anderson on Guam, have long been home to the majority of the USAF’s assets in the region and are within range of China’s missiles. In response to this threat, the air force plans to spread its warplanes across potentially dozens of smaller bases throughout the Indo-Pacific, prepositioning weapons and equipment to reinforce the smallest air fields.

Rapid fire

Rheinmetall has delivered 25 Boxer combat reconnaissance vehicles as part of phase 2 of the Australian Army’s LAND 400 project. These early Boxers were built in Germany, where there are currently more than 30 Australians learning production processes before manufacturing shifts to Australia. Rheinmetall Defence Australia boss Gary Stewart says the Boxers’ ‘survivability and mobility’ will be a major boost for the army’s armoured cavalry. Along with Hanwha, Rheinmetall is also in the running for phase 3 of the LAND 400 program with its Lynx infantry fighting vehicle.

Under Chinese President Xi Jinping’s military modernisation goal, the People’s Liberation Army Navy Marine Corps is undergoing an evolution. The PLANMC has focused on enlarging its multi-domain and multi-mission capacities, especially broadening the navy’s ability to undertake land operations. State television recently showed PLANMC troops inspecting ZTQ-15, or Type 15, lightweight battle tanks as some infantry units transform themselves into ‘combined arms’ outfits.

Final frontier

NASA has announced two new missions to Venus to be launched by 2030 as interest in the planet heats up. The DAVINCI+ probe will collect data about the composition of Venus’s atmosphere and the VERITAS orbiter will map the topography and temperature of the planet using radar and infrared sensors. The missions will be NASA’s first to Venus in more than three decades, but it won’t be alone—the space agencies of Europe, India and Russia and private companies, like California-based RocketLab, are all developing their own Venus missions.

The Australian National University is leading a multinational project that will provide high-quality images to shed light on some of the mysteries of distant galaxies. The MCAO Assisted Visible Imager and Spectrograph (MAVIS) instrument will be fitted to a telescope at the European Southern Observatory and is being developed in collaboration with Australia’s Macquarie University and institutions in Italy and France. In addition to helping explore the solar system, Macquarie University’s Richard McDermid says the project also demonstrates Australia’s capability to develop sophisticated instruments.

Wired watchtower

The US Justice Department has recovered more than half of the money extorted by the hackers that caused the Colonial Pipeline shutdown. The department’s digital extortion taskforce seized a bitcoin wallet containing 75 bitcoins, representing around US$2.3 million of the company’s US$4.4 million ransom payment. Cryptocurrency has become the preferred method of payment for hackers because it enables them to hide their identities, and many analysts have noted that the rise of ransomware attacks has coincided with the rise of cryptocurrency.

On 4 June, the Nigerian government announced that it was suspending Twitter indefinitely due to ‘the persistent use of the platform for activities that are capable of undermining Nigeria’s corporate existence’. The announcement came two days after Twitter removed a post by the country’s president, Muhammadu Buhari, for violating its terms of use by threatening to punish groups responsible for recent attacks on government buildings. Despite few Nigerians using the social media platform, it is a popular site for people to organise anti-government protests.

The threat spectrum

Planet A

A recent study on climate-change-related mortality, published in Nature Climate Change, found that an average of 37% of heat-related deaths in recent decades is directly attributable to human-induced climate change. The authors analysed temperature and mortality data from 732 locations in 43 countries—including Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane—between 1991 and 2018 and found evidence of increased heat-related mortality on every continent. The report also found that nearly 3,000 heat-related deaths in these Australian cities were linked to climate-change-induced temperature increases and suggested that heat-related deaths may be higher in rural areas.

This study is the first to quantify the climate-change-related deaths that have already occurred, rather than project estimates into the future. The authors say that their findings ‘support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change’. Alongside this, the study raises questions about future demand for cooling technology and infrastructure.

Democracy watch

Samoa has been embroiled in a constitutional crisis since the country’s 9 April election, with incumbent Prime Minister Tuila‘epa Sa‘ilele Malielegaoi of the Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) and PM-elect Fiame Naomi Mata‘afa of the FAST party both claiming the title of prime minister.

After the official ballot count on 12 April, the FAST party held a slim majority of 26 seats in the 51-seat parliament. However, Samoa’s electoral commission then decided to install an extra female MP for the HRPP, based on a disputed reading of the Samoan constitution’s stipulation that 10% of Samoa’s parliament be female. This interpretation was rejected by Samoa’s supreme court.

On 24 May, Fiame and her FAST party colleagues arrived for the first sitting of parliament only to be locked out of the building. A swearing-in ceremony was held outside instead. Tuila‘epa and the HRRP maintained that Fiame’s government was illegitimate and appealed the supreme court ruling.

In a judgement handed down on 2 June, the court rejected the appeal, affirming the FAST party’s majority win in the election. The region is now watching to see whether this result will facilitate an orderly transition to the new government.

Information operations

A fake recording of People’s Party legislator Tsai Pi-ru has been circulating on social media in Taiwan, spreading disinformation about bogus Covid-19 cures. While the source of the recording is still unconfirmed, many similar disinformation campaigns have been linked to the Chinese government and Taiwanese citizens seeking to discredit domestic political actors and promote a more pro-China stance than that currently held by President Tsai Ing-wen’s Democratic Progressive Party government.

This is the latest in a series of pandemic-related disinformation—also termed ‘infodemic’—campaigns that have surged since the country’s newest and most serious Covid-19 outbreak began on 12 May. In largely Covid-free Taiwan, the campaigns have succeeded in causing some public panic.

Taiwan is also embroiled in a vaccine dispute with China, which Taiwan’s government has accused of blocking access to international vaccines. The recent surge in cases has increased vaccine demand, challenging Taiwan’s steadfast commitment to acquire international vaccines and adding domestic pressure to accept doses from China.

Follow the money

As China encounters social and economic challenges from its decreasing birth rate, the government has discarded its two-child policy for one that allows couples to have up to three children. China has tightened its control on population growth since 1980, when it first introduced the one-child policy. China has benefited from a demographic dividend which over several decades has provided the nation with low-cost labour, though the population is now ageing. While the government is hoping that loosening the birth limit will reduce some of the pressures caused by an ageing population, the move may be ineffective.

Official limits on family size are no longer the main reason China’s birth rate is decreasing. The increasing cost of raising children has become a major concern and amendments to birth limits are unlikely to work if the government doesn’t provide enough financial support. Parents in China struggle to access expensive childcare and healthcare systems, a problem exacerbated by pay cuts for women on maternity leave.

Terror byte

On 23 May, Belarusian authorities diverted a commercial flight from Greece to Lithuania that was travelling through its airspace to apprehend dissident journalist Roman Protasevich. The diversion was labelled ‘an act of state terrorism’ by Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte. While en route, the flight was redirected to land in Belarus’s capital city Minsk, accompanied by a Belarusian MiG-29, due to what authorities claimed was a bomb threat. Protasevich is a prominent critic of President Alexander Lukashenko and since his arrest has appeared on state television confessing to organising protests.

The international community has strongly condemned the incident, and many Western leaders are set to increase sanctions on Belarus, including by removing aviation links with the country. The long-term implications of the incident could be significant, as it’s raised questions about the vulnerability of other commercial flights to political interception and the likelihood that other authoritarian regimes will follow Belarus’s example of diverting a flight under false pretences in order to arrest a dissident.

How to bring Indigenous expertise and experience into Defence and the digital economy

Indigenous perspectives are rarely foregrounded in national policy debates. Australia has a long history of imposing solutions on First Nations communities and expecting increased economic participation and social inclusion to follow. This is a domain of quick fixes that more often reinforce historical injustice, rather than engage in the long-term project of listening to and being led by Australia’s diverse First Nations communities.

To help address this gap on the digital and defence policy front, ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre IndigiCyber, Defence and Space program is launching ‘IndigiCyber Conversations’, a thought leadership series of podcasts, articles and interviews.

This series aims to celebrate the unique skills and perspectives of First Nations Australians at all levels of seniority in discussions on both digital issues that affect them and on the Indigenous experience in participating in Australia’s broader environment.

Most importantly, the series will explore ways in which Indigenous communities can lead partnerships with government on solutions to digital challenges.

This first conversation between Wulli Wulli computer scientist Benjamin Sylvester Millar from the Australian National University and Indigenous engagement expert Dion Devow is relevant to all organisations trying to attract diverse talent and participate in a reconciliation journey.

The budget announcement on digital skills promised initiatives to increase the quantity and quality of cybersecurity professionals. However, it’s been a long-standing challenge for many government agencies to attract and, more importantly, to retain talent from the communities they purport to serve.

Millar articulates a message that governments at all levels could push to attract more people into digital roles: they’re creative jobs and working with data is a creative endeavour.

‘There’s such a stigma around degrees and jobs that relate to data. It’s always, “smart people go and code”. It’s not true. It’s a creative thing to be doing. It’s just like learning another language.’

Despite the work that’s been done to make it easier to understand the knowledge, professional and behavioural skills that underpin qualifications in Digital Career Pathways frameworks, Australia still faces an acute skills shortage in the digital economy and cybersecurity.

Governments need to better craft projects in consultation with Australian communities to define digital problems and solutions to attract talent to the sector and to reinforce the benefits of those  services.

The iterative process that frequently defines innovation is an uneasy fit for top-down government services because government projects must work immediately and be fit to serve a diverse citizenry.

So, we frequently see projects leading to poor service delivery because off-the-shelf solutions are not built around community needs and lack adequate consideration of technological access and affordability.

From an Indigenous perspective, as Millar and Devow discuss, many are attracted to professions that make a difference. A better understanding of how technology can help communities might attract more Indigenous candidates.

‘Lots of Indigenous students gravitate towards healthcare and law because it’s pretty obvious what the impact is. You train to be a nurse and you can go into community and help people, help blackfellas in general … how tech helps community is less obvious.’

The aspiration to deliver positive policy programs to communities is common to Indigenous employees in the Australian Public Service. A study by the ANU’s Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research found that ‘an overwhelming motivation involved a desire to make a useful difference—that is, to help improve government policy and programs [and] serve their community’.

The flipside of this, and one reason why Indigenous employees leave, says the study, is ‘the extent to which political considerations and political expediency appeared to pervade the APS …  [undermining] their sense of being able to become meaningfully involved in positive policy initiatives, or deliver useful programs to Indigenous people’.

There are lessons here for the Australian Defence Force too. All military services look set to miss their commitments to a 5% Indigenous recruitment target by 2025. Indigenous psychological perspectives have not been integrated in psychometric testing in recruitment. There are data gaps in understanding why Indigenous people leave the services, and training gaps in digital skills, mentoring and leadership for Indigenous employees.

In ICPC’s consultations with the ADF we’ve found one step that would be truly transformative: for the services to build relationships that prioritise trust and friendship with communities over the achievement of a mission objective. Transactional initiatives will not confer benefits to the community and are a significant reason for continual failures.

It’s also not sufficient to tick a box of digital participation and recruitment outreach without simultaneously ensuring that data is controlled by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities and used to advance the ability to make decisions about development, justice and equality.

Millar explains that every choice has to do with data. ‘So, it’s about ways we can make the data and how it’s presented to people friendly to Black Australia. Because at the moment, everyone who works on it is mostly white’.

Within the corporate sector, diversity is seen to be a key driver of innovation. ICPC’s analysis of 205 cybersecurity firms in Australia, found that fewer than 3% have Indigenous initiatives and many defence companies are only beginning their reconciliation journeys.

Many organisations don’t know where to start or what kinds of initiatives and support are appropriate for Indigenous Australians. Some organisations simply want to tick a box to satisfy Defence contract requirements that stipulate engagement with Indigenous initiatives.

US President Joe Biden has made diversity a key aspect of his platform, not only because equal opportunity is a core principle of American democracy, but also because of the ongoing effects of historical injustices.

In Australia, diversity and inclusion initiatives are often seen as tokenistic rather than an integral part of innovation processes and workforce planning. There needs to be wider engagement with reconciliation action plans and appreciation of some of the challenges of being an Indigenous employee.

Initiating a reconciliation action plan is a way to systematise engagement with Indigenous Australia at the boardroom level. It’s a way for an organisation to initiate a program of activities that inverts the responsibility for employment pathways. Instead of placing the demand on Indigenous people to be ‘work ready’, it shifts focus to an organisation’s readiness to employ Indigenous people.

Companies that implement Indigenous pathways for employment like cadetships, internships and  graduate positions send an important signal to First Nations Australians that some organisational thinking has been done about Indigenous employment. These pathways are not about lowering standards but sending a signal, creating opportunities and networks for Indigenous people who are often first-in-family and lack the professional networks of their white counterparts.

[Indigenous pathways are] about giving Black Australia an opportunity to go into [a profession]. I feel that there’s more stigma that comes about from going through a diversity program than comes from someone getting a job because their dad is a partner in a firm.

There’s also a mental block when someone sees an application, especially if no-one in your family has done it before, it’s like, ‘it’s not for me’. Whereas, if there’s a label on it, it signals that this space is open to an Aboriginal man or woman to come in and do that job.

It’s important to understand the pressures that organisations put on Indigenous employees. Researchers at the University of Technology Sydney’s Jumbunna Institute for Indigenous Education and Research found in a survey that 65% of Indigenous employees said they felt they had to work harder to prove that they, as an Indigenous person, could do the job.

Indigenous employees also have what the researchers describe as a ‘high cultural load’—being called upon to do not only their job, but also to ‘organise NAIDOC Week events, doing acknowledgements of Country or seeing all Indigenous clients on top of their other work’.

Millar describes how cultural load placed additional pressures on him while studying.

‘Any issue that has something to do with Indigenous issues, I’m expected to be an authority on. So that’s a huge amount of pressure.’

Cultural expectations also played a role shaping Millar’s work and study decisions, a situation common to many young Indigenous Australians, who often have caring responsibilities. ‘I feel somewhat obligated to go out and earn a wage so I can support people back home … it plays a part in lots of choices I make,’ he says.

Millar’s community, particularly his grandmother, played a crucial role in influencing him to finish school. This is reflective of the wider literature which suggests that community elders play an important role in influencing schooling decisions. Institutional support at ANU also helped.

One of the ways to excite the next generation of Indigenous future STEM champions is to recognise that young First Australians are experts in their own lives. It’s important to listen respectfully to their journeys and to meaningfully engage them in the policymaking that directly affects them and their communities.

The five-domains update

Sea state

Both of the Royal Navy’s Queen Elizabeth–class aircraft carriers have sailed together for the first time, in a symbolic culmination of the UK’s ‘carrier renaissance’. According to naval commander Commodore Steve Moorhouse, the additional carrier puts the UK ‘back in the front rank of maritime powers’, consistent with the its goal to once again become a global naval force. That includes in the Indo-Pacific, to which a strike group led by HMS Queen Elizabeth will soon depart.

Australia’s navy and air force have helped rescue 20 Indonesian fishermen from their sinking fishing vessel about 1,200 kilometres off Western Australia. Royal Australian Air Force and Australian Maritime Safety Authority personnel dropped life rafts to the crew before they were helped onboard frigate HMAS Anzac, where they received medical support. Along with the participating Australian forces, AMSA’s Mark Morrow commended Japanese fishing vessel Fukuseki Maru 15, which diverted to aid in the rescue. The Anzac has since returned the Indonesian crew to their home port in Bali.

Flight path

From 12 May to 15 June, 50 aircraft and more than 500 personnel from the RAAF are taking part in Exercise Arnhem Thunder 21 operating from bases Darwin and Tindal in the Northern Territory. The exercise involves 10 different types of aircraft and marks the first time an F-35A will operate out of RAAF Base Darwin. Exercise Arnhem Thunder will focus on cross-force interoperability and include force integration training and large force employment scenarios.

The US Air Force has provided new details about the development of its Next Generation Air Dominance, or NGAD, program which aims to replace the F-22 Raptor stealth fighter starting sometime in the 2030s and eventually (perhaps sooner than originally planned), the F-35A. The USAF has indicated that the F-22 is becoming increasingly ill-equipped for the kinds of challenging missions likely to be required in the Indo-Pacific theatre in coming years. An NGAD prototype has been flying since September, but further details and a timeline for the aircraft are still under wraps.

Rapid fire

The Australian Army’s new Boxer combat reconnaissance vehicles are participating in their first major training scenario. Diamond Walk is a month-long advanced military exercise and is taking place at Queensland’s Shoalwater Bay Training Area. Crews said the Boxer is ‘unlike anything they have worked with before’ and while its sensors and systems provide more information to work with ‘your mind is stretched between a few different lines of effort’. The Boxer falls under phase 2 of the army’s LAND 400 program, which will see 211 of the eight-wheeled armoured vehicles being acquired at a cost of more than $5 billion.

The US Army has recently held a demonstration event for electric light reconnaissance vehicles known as eLRV. Ten companies brought vehicles for analysis, though only two were 100% powered by electricity. When they’re eventually deployed, eLRVs are expected to enhance capabilities in ‘mobility, automotive performance, lethality and mission load capacity’. Although the US Army collected information from the demonstration ahead of a possible prototyping program, there is no clear timeline for the project due to a lack of direct funding.

Final frontier

China’s Zhurong rover has driven onto the Martian surface a week after its historic landing on the plain known as Utopia Planitia, determined by NASA to be the site of large amounts of underground ice. The Zhurong rover was carried to Mars onboard the Tianwen-1 orbiter and is China’s first interplanetary mission. The six-wheeled rover will conduct tasks using six scientific payloads including ground-penetrating radar, which will be used to collect data on potential water–ice deposits. It will also examine the weather, topography and geology of the Utopia Planitia region.

South Korea is reportedly set to join NASA’s Artemis program after a 21 May summit between President Moon Jae-in and US President Joe Biden held at the White House. The program is a US-led mission to send people back to the moon by 2024, representing the next iteration of human space exploration. So far, nine countries have signed the Artemis Accords including Australia, Canada, the UK and Japan. In a White House press release, both parties announced their commitment to working towards South Korea signing the accords.

Wired watchtower

The Sydney Morning Herald reports that China could have shut down Australia’s 5G network if Huawei had been allowed to build it. Before it was banned in 2018, the Australian government attempted to see if Huawei’s technology could be securely used but the report claims the risk could not be fully mitigated even with the implementation of 300 security measures recommend by the Australian Signals Directorate. The company has denied it would comply with a law passed in 2017 that requires all Chinese companies to cooperate on anything deemed significant to national security by Beijing.

Home Affairs Secretary Mike Pezzullo has warned a cyberattack on critical infrastructure like the electrical grid is a credible, immediate and realistic threat. The government is proposing new laws that would impose heightened cybersecurity responsibilities on operators of infrastructure in critical sectors including energy, health, water and transport. This follows a series of cyberattacks including on federal parliament, Western Australia’s parliament and news organisation Nine.

The threat spectrum

Planet A

A report by risk analysts Verisk Maplecroft has found that 99 of the world’s 100 most climate-vulnerable cities are in Asia. The report assesses factors including air pollution, resource availability and natural-disaster vulnerability to rank the world’s 576 largest urban centres by climate risk. Of these, 414 cities, with more than 1.4 billion inhabitants, were classified ‘high or extreme environmental risk’.

The most vulnerable city, Jakarta, is exposed to air pollution, annual flooding and seismic activity, while cities like Guangzhou, Osaka and Tokyo are particularly exposed to natural threats like floods, earthquakes and typhoons. Some nations have significant numbers of high-risk cities, such as India (43) and China (37), however, the report found there are no ‘risk-free’ urban environments.

These risk indexes primarily measure threats and resilience through the lens of investment and commercial potential. However, the report also references the existential threat facing citizens as extreme weather events become more common. These threats, combined with the continued trend in Asia towards rapid urbanisation, demand urgent government action.

Democracy watch

It’s been two years since the outbreak of major protests in Hong Kong and the territory has been moving further away from democracy as Beijing’s national security law is enforced. The government has been using the law to arrest and prosecute protestors and pro-democracy activists.

In early April, media tycoon and owner of Next Media, Lai Chee-Ying, also known as Jimmy Lai, was sentenced to 14 months in jail after his participation in protests. On Monday, Lai and nine other activists pleaded guilty to gathering in an ‘unlawful assembly’ and the government froze Lai’s assets, effectively halting Next Media’s trading on the Hong Kong stock exchange. The freezing of Lai’s assets has jeopardised the operation of Apple Daily, a Next Media pro-democratic tabloid. As a harsh critic of China’s takeover of Hong Kong’s politics, Apple Daily has been a key target for the government. With this latest action, freedom of speech in Hong Kong has become even more tenuous.

Information operations

More details have emerged regarding the 7 May Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack by cybercriminal group DarkSide, which caused fuel price surges and shortages throughout the US. It’s been confirmed the company halted pipeline operations because its billing system was compromised and it was concerned it wouldn’t be able to charge customers for fuel. The company reportedly paid a 75 Bitcoin—nearly $4 million—ransom to the attackers, against FBI guidance, in an attempt to restore its disabled computer network.

While Colonial has restarted its pipeline, some have highlighted the national security threat posed by private companies’ cybersecurity vulnerabilities. US Senator Ron Wyden has called for the US government to conduct cybersecurity audits on companies, particularly those responsible for critical infrastructure, and force them to secure their computer systems.

Cryptocurrency analyst Tom Robinson identified that the Bitcoin wallet used by Darkside had received 57 payments since March totalling US$17.5 million, indicating potential ransom payments from other victims. This highlights a concerning trend of companies paying ransoms to attackers, encouraging future attacks.

Follow the money

As the 23 July date for the start of the rescheduled Tokyo Olympics approaches, Japan is suffering from a surge in new Covid-19 cases. On 14 May, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga again declared a state of emergency in several prefectures, including Tokyo, as the country experiences its fourth wave of the virus. A recent survey showed that 83% of citizens are against the rescheduled running of the games.

Japan has invested US$25 billion on the event and, if it falls through, the cost is expected to rise well above that. The potential economic cost of not holding the games is likely one of the main reasons the Japanese government has been reluctant to call them off. Professor Jack Anderson from the University of Melbourne, however, claims Japanese considerations go beyond economics, arguing that the Olympics would also be a symbol of Japan’s revival after economic stagnation, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

Terror byte

Last week, senior British counterterrorism officer Matt Twist told reporters that extremist groups are exploiting memes and conspiracy theories about Covid-19 to attract vulnerable and young people to their ideologies. Although all extremist groups are employing this tactic, Twist said far-right groups are the biggest perpetrators. The UK trend follows similar ones seen in Australia, the US and Germany, where vulnerabilities in social media platforms have enabled extremist groups to disseminate their narratives and incite terrorism. Mandatory lockdowns, more time spent at home, increased social isolation and extra internet use have led to dramatic growth in the number of people engaging with extremist content online.

Platforms like Twitter and YouTube have updated their content-moderation policies—often broadening the definition of harm in an attempt to suppress the spread of Covid-19 disinformation. However, their largely automated content-moderation procedures cannot capture and remove all conspiracy theories, raising questions as to how governments and law enforcement agencies are going to manage online radicalisation before it turns into offline action.