Tag Archive for: Houthis

Houthis’ lesson for the US Army: how a land force can fight a maritime war

The US Army should consider borrowing a page from the playbook of Yemen’s Houthi militants.

The character of war is always changing, and the Houthis’ ongoing attacks against shipping in the Red Sea may prove to be one of the more significant inflection points in military history.

The change involves sea control and sea denial through the application of long-range precision missile fire and autonomous drone employment from the shore. The Houthis effectively blend a mix of anti-ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and one-way attack drones to contest control over maritime lines of communication in the Red Sea littoral. They have so far damaged at least 30 merchant ships, sunk two and killed or detained several merchant sailors.

The US Army should aim for much the same capability in a contested littoral environment against an adversary such as China. Technically and tactically, the service is moving in this direction, but it needs to fully embrace the strategy to avoid becoming largely irrelevant in the major war in which the US is most likely to become involved. Army heavy formations almost certainly won’t be available in the initial fighting in a Western Pacific war.

The army can draw on efforts that are already underway in the US military. It can, for example, take inspiration from the US Navy’s Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO) concept, in which ships are widely separated but act in unison. Army units might operate similarly in the Western Pacific.

The navy is developing DMO for forces that find themselves in combat against an adversary, such as China, that can detect, track and attack US and allied assets at great distances with a variety of different weapon systems.

The army’s own Typhon or Strategic Mid-Range Fires (SMRF) program, in which it is fielding its Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs) and navy SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles for strike missions, should contribute, as should research into drone technology by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).

In a maritime war in the Western Pacific, the army would likely have to operate on distant island bases and attack shipping in much the same way the Houthis are doing from the interior of Yemen. Geographic dispersal will be a vital aspect of survivability in the next war.

The SMRF program is already well adapted for shore-based sea control operations. So is the army’s new Multi-Domain Task Force (MDTF), in which units are tailored to specific theatres for long-range precision effects, including cyber, electromagnetic warfare and precision strike using weapons systems like PrSM and SM-6.

The army should apply the DMO concept to SMRF-equipped MDTFs and deploy them on bases outside the First Island Chain, the string of islands from Japan to Indonesia that hems in China.

This forward presence would contribute to integrated deterrence by forcing the Chinese military to cope with multiple operational dilemmas. It would, for example, have to track multiple distant targets simultaneously and defend against firing batteries distributed across the Western Pacific. Those batteries would demand attention because they’d have the range and lethality to strike and destroy high-value targets throughout the region.

A key aspect of Houthi operations has been the use of one-way attack drones—in effect propellor-driven cruise missiles that are extremely cheap and numerous, presenting unsustainable economic challenge, given the cost of defensive interceptors like SM-2s and SM-6s. Here too, the US Army can learn from the Houthis and adapt to use similar tactics. DARPA’s work, for instance, on offensive swarming drones will be a vital advance in how US thinks about and executes offensive maritime operations and sea control or denial.

To Houthi tactics, add strategic mobility. Here, the utility of the US Air Force’s heavy airlifters comes into play. They can deploy ground units almost anywhere that has even a rough airfield, greatly reinforcing the army’s ability to participate in an island-based maritime war. US and allied exercises should routinely practice rapid loading and unloading of systems such as HIMARS missile launchers on and off C-130 Hercules cargo aircraft.

A valuable effect of such exercises would be honing interoperability between US services and between them and allied militaries. Indeed, highly capable US allies, such as Australia, should play a major role in how the US Army and broader joint forces think about fighting in the Western Pacific.

The US Army and allied forces can achieve a war-altering advantage if they learn from and apply the Houthi tactic of controlling the sea from the shore with inexpensive drones and long-range precision strike weapons and if they blend this technique with air mobility.

The Houthis are unlikely teachers but teachers nonetheless. Houthi operations have demonstrated that shore-based sea control and sea denial can be highly effective. They have shown how the US Army and US partners and allies should incorporate new tactics and weapons systems into their forces before the next war comes.

Shipping oil through troubled waters

Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have had almost no impact on the oil price, despite the volume of oil shipped through the waterway surging 80% over the last two years because of the war in the Ukraine.

Markets more worried about a soft global economy and rising US and Brazilian oil production than by the prospect of interrupted oil flows, having already seen the global oil market adjust to the massive disruption caused by Russia’s invasion of its neighbour.

The oil market has fragmented over the last two years, with Russia now primarily supplying China and India while the Middle East and the United States have replaced Russia in Europe.

Flows of Russian oil travelling south through the Suez Canal rose from about 700,000 barrels a day in 2020 to 3.6 million in the first half of 2023. Flows of Middle East oil travelling north through the Suez Canal rose from 2 million to 3.5 million barrels a day in the same period, according to the US Department of Energy.

In total, oil tankers were ferrying about 9.2 million barrels a day up and down the Red Sea in the first half of 2023, up from 5.1 million barrels a day in 2021.

That translates to a lot more ‘oil-miles’, but there’s been little movement in the price. The Brent oil benchmark was at US81.63 a barrel at the beginning of November but has been below US$80 for most of the last two months.

There’s been some diversion of oil tankers since November, when Houthi militias based in Yemen started attacking ships traversing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the 25km-wide southern entrance to the Red Sea. BP announced that it was diverting its ships around the south of Africa, while the world’s fourth largest tanker group, Frontline, said it would avoid the Suez Canal where possible.

However, the oil tanker business is ferociously competitive with a huge number of operators. The top 30 companies control less than half of total capacity, so tanker operators will continue to run the risk of sailing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, weighing both the relative costs of insurance versus sailing around the south of Africa and the importance of timely delivery. Diverting large oil-tankers bound for Asia around the south of Africa adds 30 to 40 days to the voyage.

An assessment by the ship-tracking service, Mari-Trace, detected an average of 76 oil tankers a day in the south Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in December, only three fewer than the average for the first 11 months of the year.

The oil industry has seen off many previous attacks in the Persian Gulf, which is much more critical to global supplies than the Red Sea. While the Red Sea is mainly a transit channel, the Persian Gulf is the source of about 21 million barrels of oil a day, with ships having to traverse the vulnerable 40km-wide Strait of Hormuz.

Between 1984 and 1988, the war that had been raging between Iraq and Iran embroiled tankers travelling to each country. An assessment by the University of Texas Strauss Center found that although 239 ships were attacked of which 55 were sunk, the disruption to oil supplies to world markets from the Persian Gulf was less than 2%.

Oil tankers were harder to damage or sink than general cargo ships or dry bulk carriers. During the so-called ‘tanker war’, 23% of the oil tankers that were attacked were sunk, compared with 34% of general cargo ships and 39% of bulk carriers. Since the big oil tankers are many times larger than navy vessels, even anti-ship missiles like the French Exocet caused relatively little damage.

There was another spate of attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz in 2019, with responsibility variously attributed to Houthi militias, who were fighting Saudi Arabia at the time, or Iran, which was facing severe sanctions from the US on its oil shipments.

An analysis of those attacks by insurer, Allianz, helps explain why tanker operators are prepared to continue running the risk of missile attack.  A very large crude carrier could be carrying 2 million barrels of oil, which in 2019 would have been worth US$135 million.

A five-year old ship was worth about $70 million.  Additional war insurance was between 0.2% and 0.5% of hull value, translating to between $140,000 and $350,000.  That amounts to only 0.1% to 0.25% of the cargo’s value, a sum that could readily be absorbed by suppliers or customers.

According to Mari-Trace, insurance premiums for ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Southern Red Sea have risen from 0.07% of hull value in early December to between 0.5% and 0.7% by early January.

The oil market’s reputation as a geopolitical bell-weather dates from the 1973 Yom Kippur war when OPEC put an embargo on oil deliveries to nations supporting Israel over about six months which led to oil prices tripling to US$60 a barrel and fuelling global inflation (although deficit funding of the Vietnam war also contributed).

The 1979 Iranian revolution sent oil prices rocketing to US$150 in 1979, but they then spent the next six years slowly declining, despite the ‘tanker war’.  Since then, geopolitics have lost much of their bite in the oil market.

There was a very brief spike, lasting a few months, when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, but no reaction at all to the September 11 attacks in 2001 or to the attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz in 2019.

The oil price did react to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, briefly reaching US$129 a barrel in March but were back below US$100 by August last year and have averaged about US$83 since then.

The declining sensitivity of the oil market to geopolitical events partly reflects the massive growth of US oil production, which rose from 5 million barrels a day in 2010 to 13 million barrels a day by the end of last year. This has almost eliminated the US dependence on Middle East oil and instead turned it into a significant exporter.

The US both imports and exports oil (reflecting the fact that many US refineries were built to accommodate imported crude), but the US ability to be a swing supplier helped minimise the impact of Europe slashing its purchases of Russian oil. It also means the US economy no longer reacts to passing instability in the Middle East.

The global economy has also become less dependent on oil. Oil’s share of total energy supply has dropped from about 50% in 1973 to 30% now. In 1973, the world consumed a barrel of oil for every US$1000 of GDP. By 2019, it was only consuming 0.4 of a barrel for the same (inflation adjusted) level of output.

Still, you can’t be an economist if you don’t hedge your bets. For the moment, the rocket attacks on shipping are having negligible effect on the market. If the Gaza conflict escalates into regional war involving Iran and threatening the Persian Gulf, governments could be left revisiting their management of the 1973 crisis.

ASPI suggests

Portrait of Xi JinpingIf you’re looking to get your defence and national security fix over the Easter long weekend, look no further!

Long-read, world leader profiles are becoming a tradition for Suggests: the latest is a The New Yorker piece that explores how China’s Xi Jinping became the most authoritarian leader since Mao. In tracing his transformation from provincial administrator to president, author Evan Osnos highlights Xi’s shaking up of the system, including relentless crackdowns on corruption, but also his growing cult of personality:

The state news agency has taken the unprecedented step of adopting a nickname for the General Secretary: Xi Dada—roughly, Big Uncle Xi.

Sticking with a New York state of mind, if you’re interested in the enigmatic origins of the Houthis in Yemen, read Robert F. York’s review in The New York Review of Books of Safa al Ahmad’s film Yemen: The Rise of the Houthis. It serves as a useful backgrounder on a conflict that’s also involved al-Qaeda and now Saudi Arabia. For another perspective, I recommend reading Yemen expert Sarah Phillips’ work, including her latest Lowy Interpreter post that sheds light on the Houthis’ relationship with Iran.

Over on World Politics Review, Clint Watts has a provocative essay on how al Shabaab serves as a model of decline for Islamic State. Watts argues that the combined pressure of a coalition reduced al Shabaab ‘from the dominant entity in Somalia to a fractious force pushed to the rural interior’, providing insights into how events in Iraq and Syria may unfold. All eyes remain on al Shabaab, however, as more reports emerge about an attack by the group on a university in northeastern Kenya yesterday, killing 147 people.

Speaking of Islamic State, make time for this discussion between Graeme Wood—best known for his recent essay on ‘What ISIS really wants’—and Robert Wright on bloggingheads.tv on Wood’s research on IS’ social media material, its ‘Islamic’ credentials and why sending group troops would be a terrible idea (video, 50mins).

Kevin Rudd’s TED talk on China and the US is finally available online, and it begins with the words ‘Hello, my name’s Kevin. I’m from Australia. And I’m here to help’. Keep watching to see whether his alternative narrative can steer Washington and Beijing away from a collision course (video, 20mins).

Lastly, we pay our respects to military working dog Sarbi who passed away from a brain tumour last week. On a positive note, replacing their fallen canine colleagues is a new breed of military working cats. Results, so far, have been mixed:

Kitten First Class Nermal, a gray, mackerel tabby, has been assigned to stop a known hostile from stealing documents and embedding an improvised explosive device within a computer. Instead, Nermal can be seen batting a ball of yarn around for forty-five seconds before becoming bored and then discovering an unassuming but fascinating box.

Happy Easter long weekend, readers!