Tag Archive for: AUKUS

British public opinion on foreign policy: President Trump, Ukraine, China, Defence spending and AUKUS

Results snapshot

President Trump

  • Britons support an open and engaged foreign policy role for the United Kingdom. In light of the re-election of President Donald Trump, 40% believe Britain should continue to maintain its current active level of engagement in world affairs, and 23% believe it should play a larger role.
  • Just 16% of Britons support a less active United Kingdom on the world stage.
  • When asked what Britain’s response should be if the United States withdraws its financial and military support from Ukraine, 57% of Britons would endorse the UK either maintaining (35%) or increasing (22%) its contributions to Ukraine. One-fifth would prefer that the UK reduces its contributions to Ukraine.

UK–China relations

  • Just a quarter (26%) of Britons support the UK Government’s efforts to increase engagement with China in the pursuit of economic growth and stabilised diplomatic relations.
  • In comparison, 45% of Britons would either prefer to return to the more restricted level of engagement under the previous government (25%) or for the government to reduce its relations with Beijing even further (20%).
  • A large majority of Britons (69%) are concerned about the increasing degree of cooperation between Russia and China. Conservative and Labour voters share similarly high levels of concern, and Britons over 50 years of age are especially troubled about the trend of adversary alignment.

Defence and security

  • When asked whether the UK will need to spend more on defence to keep up with current and future global security challenges, a clear two-thirds (64%) of the British people agree. Twenty-nine per cent of Britons strongly agree that defence spending should increase. Just 12% disagree that the UK will need to spend more.
  • The majority of Britons believe that collaboration with allies on defence and security projects like AUKUS will help to make the UK safer (55%) and that partnerships like AUKUS focusing on developing cutting-edge technologies with Britain’s allies will help to make the UK more competitive towards countries like China (59%).
  • Britons are somewhat less persuaded that AUKUS will succeed as a deterrent against Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific, although the largest group of respondents (44%) agree that it will.

Brief survey methodology and notes

Survey design and analysis: Sophia Gaston

Field work: Opinium

Field work dates: 8–10 January 2025

Weighting: Weighted to be nationally and politically representative

Sample: 2,050 UK adults

The field work for this report was conducted by Opinium through an online survey platform, with a sample size of 2,050 UK adults aged 18 and over. This sample size is considered robust for public opinion research and aligns with industry standards. With 2,000 participants, the margin of error for reported figures is approximately ±2.3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Beyond this sample size, the reduction in the margin of error becomes minimal, making this size both statistically sufficient and practical for drawing meaningful conclusions with reliable representation of the UK adult population. For the full methodological statement, see Appendix 1 of this report.

Notes

  1. Given the subject matter of this survey, objective and impartial contextual information was provided at the beginning of questions. There are some questions for which fairly substantial proportions of respondents were unsure of their answers. All ‘Don’t knows’ are reported.
  2. The survey captured voters for all political parties, and non-voters; however, only the findings for the five largest parties are discussed in detail in this report, with the exception of one question (6C), in which it was necessary to examine the smaller parties as the source of a drag on the national picture. The five major parties discussed in this report are the Conservative Party, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, Reform (formerly the Brexit Party and UKIP), and the Green Party.
  3. This report also presents the survey results differentiated according to how respondents’ voted in the 2016 referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union, their residency within the UK, their age, their socio-economic status, and whether they come from White British or non-White British backgrounds. The full methodological notes are found at the end of the report.
  4. Some of the graphs present ‘NET’ results, which combine the two most positive and two most negative responses together – for example, ‘Significantly increase’ and ‘Somewhat increase’ – to provide a more accessible representation of the balance of public opinion. These are presented alongside the full breakdown of results for each question for full transparency.

Introduction

There’s no doubt that 2025 will be a consequential year in geopolitical terms, with the inauguration of President Donald Trump marking a step-change in the global role of the world’s largest economy and its primary military power. The full suite of implications for America’s allies is still emerging, and there will be opportunities for its partners to express their agency or demonstrate alignment. For a nation like the United Kingdom, whose security and strategic relationship with the United States is institutionally embedded, any pivotal shifts in American foreign policy bear profound ramifications for the UK’s international posture. The fact that such an evaluation of America’s international interests and relationships is taking place during a time in which several major conflicts – including one in Europe – continue to rage, only serves to heighten anxieties among policy-makers and citizens alike.

Public opinion on foreign policy remains an understudied and poorly understood research area in Britain, due to a long-held view that the public simply conferred responsibility for such complicated and sensitive matters to government. Certainly, many Britons don’t possess a sophisticated understanding of the intricacies of diplomatic and security policy. However, they do carry strong instincts, and, in an internationalised media age, are constantly consuming information from a range of sources and forming opinions that may diverge from government positions.

The compound effect of a turbulent decade on the international stage has made Britons more perceptive to feelings of insecurity about the state of the world, which can be transposed into their domestic outlook. At the same time, their belief in the efficacy of government to address international crises, or their support for the missions being pursued by government, isn’t guaranteed. This creates a challenging backdrop from which public consent can be sought for the kind of bold and decisive actions that may need to be considered as policy options in the coming months and years.

This study provides a snapshot of the views of British citizens at the moment at which President Donald Trump was inaugurated for a second time. It shows a nation which, overall, continues to subscribe to clear definitions of its friends and adversaries, carries a sense of responsibility to Ukraine, and greets the rise of a more assertive China with concern and scepticism. Underneath the national picture, however, the data reveals some concerning seeds of discord and divergence among certain demographic groups and political parties. The UK Government must build on the good foundations by speaking more frequently and directly to the British people about the rapidly evolving global landscape, and making the case for the values, interests, and relationships it pursues.

Sophia Gaston

March 2025

London

AUKUS Pillar 2 critical pathways: A road map to enabling international collaboration

The AUKUS trilateral partnership presents Australia with an unprecedented opportunity to achieve national-security goals that have eluded it for decades. It could offer access to cutting-edge technologies. It can further integrate Australian, US and UK military forces, allowing more unified action to maintain deterrence against national and transnational actors who threaten the global rules-based order. Perhaps most importantly, AUKUS—in particular its Pillar.2 objectives—is an opportunity for Australia to pursue the long-sought industrial capacity necessary to defend its borders and its interests across a range of probable conflict scenarios.

A vision for Pillar 2 success

AUKUS partner nations implement operational and regulatory frameworks to co-produce, co-field and continuously enhance world-leading national defence capabilities in critical technology areas. Governments will provide leadership and resources to drive effective multinational collaboration among government, industry and academic contributors, leveraging competitive advantages from across the alliance to deliver collective capability.

Whatever the rhetoric, however, the benefits are far from assured. While the effort has had successes, including cooperative artificial intelligence (AI) / autonomy trials and landmark legislation, most of the hard work remains. Strategies and principles are only the beginning. Success or failure will hinge on the translation of those strategies and principles into the regulations, standards and organisational realignments necessary to operationalise the vision. The challenges are significant—from skills and supply to budgets, leadership and bipartisanship. But the benefits from this three-nation enterprise are worth the hard work to sustain political will and financial investment and to combine aspirational ambition with suitable risk tolerance to overcome obstacles.

Past debate has contributed valuable insight into problems that can threaten the full realisation of the AUKUS arrangement including for example, problems like outdated and dysfunctional export-control regulations, struggles with integrating complicated classified information systems and differing regulations and frameworks among the AUKUS partners. Yet, when it comes to fixing those problems, regulators and industry participants often talk past one another. Governments claim that mechanisms are in place to facilitate cooperation. Businesses counter that waiting six months or more for necessary approvals is an unreasonable impediment to innovation. Both sides have a point. So far, reform efforts have been unable to break the logjam.

In this study, ASPI takes a different approach. Rather than wade once more into the morass of trade regulations to identify obstacles and recommend fixes, we interviewed the regulators and businesses that implement and operate under those regulations. Our data collection involved engaging more than 170 organisations as well as key individuals. Our intent here is to provide an operational perspective on practical barriers to cooperation as envisaged under AUKUS—particularly under Pillar 2—and offer the Australian Government detailed and actionable recommendations that we believe would help AUKUS Pillar 2 succeed.

A constant challenge has been policymakers’ lack of understanding of the daily challenges faced by businesses striving to keep Australia, the US and the UK at the forefront of defence innovation. Similarly, myths abound among industry participants about the degree of restrictions imposed by regulations such as the US’s International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). Officials make the claim that all necessary exemptions exist for AUKUS partners to cooperate, and that only minor adjustments are required to turbocharge transnational innovation. Businesses reply that narrowly tailored exemptions buried in mountains of rules are useful only for the lawyers required to make sense of them. This report aims to bridge that gap.

AUKUS is a generational opportunity for Australia. Its focus on critical Pillar 2 technologies has the potential to bring Australian champions to the world stage and lift the nation’s defence industry up to the state of the art in a range of modern capabilities. Done right, that can help to realise the robust industrial capacity that Australia needs.

Where next for the Australia–South Korea partnership?

The strategic partnership between Australia and South Korea holds great potential in an increasingly challenging time. The two nations have many common strategic interests and both can rightly claim to be regional powers. However, the relationship remains a relative underperformer compared with other key regional relationships and has suffered from inconsistency. When Canberra’s contemporary relationship with Seoul receives attention from Australian analysts, it tends to be framed largely in the context of the threats posed by Pyongyang.

While some uncertainties remain over the long-term trajectory of South Korea’s foreign and security policy due to concerns that Seoul’s current vision is tied to the Yoon government as opposed to being embedded in longer-term statecraft, the structural basis for deeper engagement between Seoul and Canberra is sound. Investing in the relationship is in both nations’ interests. Building bureaucratic and commercial frameworks for cooperation now would help ensure that bilateral strategic alignment is less prone to future changes in government.

This paper assesses the Australia–South Korea partnership through the three-pillar structure outlined in the 2021 Australia-South Korea Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and offers recommendations for strengthening the relationship. These recommendations include furthering strategic cooperation by incrementally aligning key trilateral formats, developing bilateral cooperation in critical technologies including those relevant to AUKUS Pillar 2, and nurturing collaboration with respect to the Indo-Pacific clean energy transition.

AUKUS and critical minerals: Hedging Beijing’s pervasive, clever and coordinated statecraft

AUKUS has a heavy focus on R&D of military capabilities. A number of departments, including defence, foreign affairs and prime ministerial equivalents are engaged. The science and technology to deliver those capabilities must resolve issues of insecure supply chains. Currently, supply chains for processed critical minerals and their resulting materials aren’t specifically included.

Yet all AUKUS capabilities, and the rules-based order that they uphold, depend heavily on critical minerals. China eclipses not only AUKUS for processing those minerals into usable forms, but the rest of the world combined. Without critical minerals, states are open to economic coercion in various technological industries, and defence manufacturing is particularly exposed to unnecessary supply-chain challenges.

This is where Australia comes in. Australia has the essential minerals, which are more readily exploitable because they’re located in less densely populated or ecologically sensitive areas. Australia also has the right expertise, including universities offering the appropriate advanced geoscience degrees, as well as advanced infrastructure, world-class resources technology and deep industry connections with Asia and Africa, which are also vital global sources of critical minerals.

This paper outlines why Australia offers an unrivalled rallying point to drive secure critical-mineral supply among a wide field of vested nations, using AUKUS but not limited to AUKUS partners, how WA has globally superior reserves and substantial expertise, and why northern Australia more generally has a key role to play. The paper also explains why policy action here must be prioritised by the Australian Government.

Impactful mateship: Strengthening the US–Australia defence relationship through enhanced mutual understanding

AUKUS, and the Australian Government’s release of the 2023 report of the Defence Strategic Review (DSR), reinforce to Canberra and Washington DC that there’s an urgent need to continue strengthening the US–Australia alliance. Those efforts underpin allied cooperation within the Indo-Pacific, which is an increasingly complex security environment. 
 
This report highlights 9 opportunities for both US and Australian defence decision-makers at a vital time in the relationship as it develops in complexity and builds towards the ambitions of AUKUS over the coming decade. 
 
A series of ‘quick wins’ for the US DoD are recommended, including arranging more training for inbound DoD personnel and conducting allied-centric training for relevant US-based action officers and planners at US headquarters. US DoD Funding should be provided for US action officers to visit Australia to build rapport with their counterparts and facilitate appreciation for the relationship in person. Broadly, US professional military education at every level should incorporate Australian Defence-centric views when appropriate, and the DoD can better leverage its US liaison network throughout Australia earlier in planning and when considering new initiatives. 
 
Recommended quick wins for Australian Defence to include further leveraging of US-based Australian Defence personnel and encouraging greater transparency with US counterparts regarding capacity. Enhanced transparency would provide maximum clarity on capacity challenges at all echelons, especially regarding the potential impacts of a future crisis within the Indo-Pacific. It’s also recommended that Australian Defence provide greater clarity regarding sovereignty and security concerns for the US DoD. 
 
Finally, this report also makes a major long-term recommendation that will require more resourcing, coordination and focus from US and Australian defence decision-makers, and that’s to establish and empower a US Forces Australia headquarters (USFOR-A) to synergise US DoD efforts with the Australian defence establishment. It’s inevitable that the US–Australia defence relationship will grow in scope and complexity. That will quickly outgrow and challenge the current coordination structure, which was built and implemented decades ago. This report also notes that there are lessons to be learned from the US–Japan bilateral coordination mechanisms, especially in the light of the US–Japan–Australia defence relationship, as it is set to grow in importance in the coming years.

Smooth sailing? Australia, New Zealand and the United States partnering in–and with–the Pacific islands

Australia, New Zealand and the United States should help create an ASEAN-style forum for Pacific island nations to discuss security and manage geopolitical challenges.

The call for a dialogue, modelled on the ASEAN regional forum, is one of several recommendations to improve security partnerships and coordination in the region, reducing the risk that the three countries trip over one another and lose sight of the Pacific’s own priorities as they deepen their Pacific ties out of strategic necessity amid China’s growing interest.

While focussing on those three countries, this report stresses that wider partnerships should be considered, including with France, India, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and European Union.

The report states that the three countries will have to get used to greater Chinese involvement in the Pacific, even if they don’t accept it, much less like it.

ASPI AUKUS update 2: September 2022—the one-year anniversary

Introduction

Consistent with a partnership that’s focused on the development of defence and technological capability rather than diplomatic grandstanding,1 there have been few public announcements about the progress of AUKUS. That’s an observation we made in our first AUKUS update in May,2 and one we make again in this latest update, one year on from the joint unveiling of the partnership in mid-September 2021.

Periodic press releases note meetings of the three-country joint steering groups—one of which looks at submarines and the other at advanced capabilities—but provide little hint about what was discussed.3 On Submarines, we shouldn’t expect to hear anything concrete until the 18-month consultation phase concludes in March 2022.

What’s changed, however, is that the strategic environment that gave birth to AUKUS has worsened markedly, most notably in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s escalating pressure on Taiwan and other parts of the Indo-Pacific. Those developments are making the advanced technologies AUKUS aims to foster even more relevant.

Image: iStockphoto/sameer chogade

While the political landscape across the three AUKUS partners has also changed (of the three leaders that announced AUKUS just one year ago, only one, US President Biden, remains in office), bipartisan support for AUKUS appears to be undiminished in all three capitals.

In Australia, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor government has made clear its commitment to AUKUS alongside the announcement of an ambitious Defence Strategic Review (DSR). Albanese has simultaneously worked to restore good relations with France, which temporarily withdrew its ambassador and some forms of cooperation because of the loss of the Attack-class submarine contract and what it said was a lack of Australian sincerity about AUKUS.

Britain’s new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, was a staunch advocate for AUKUS as Foreign Secretary, and all the signs are that she’ll continue in that vein as Prime Minister. Truss has kept Ben Wallace, a strong supporter of AUKUS, as Defence Secretary. Truss’s government has also moved former National Security Adviser Stephen Lovegrove into a new role focused on nuclear defence industry partnerships. If that becomes a permanent position, it could add capacity to deliver AUKUS over the long term.4

This update begins by reviewing the worsening strategic context one year on from the AUKUS announcement. Next, it summarises what more we have learned about progress in the nuclear-powered submarine (SSN) program, which is at the heart of AUKUS. It then assesses how think tanks across a selection of key countries are covering AUKUS to gauge trends in the public debate. The final section of the update assesses the importance of advanced technological cooperation through AUKUS to develop capability and reinforce deterrence rapidly in the face of the strategic challenges we face. The update makes some recommendations for the best way forward.

  1. Michael Shoebridge, What is AUKUS and what is it not?, ASPI, Canberra, 8 December 2021. ↩︎
  2. Marcus Hellyer, Ben Stevens, ASPI AUKUS update 1: May 2022, ASPI, Canberra, 5 May 2022. ↩︎
  3. ‘Readout of AUKUS Joint Steering Group meetings’, The White House, 31 July 2022. ↩︎
  4. ‘Sir Tim Barrow appointed as National Security Adviser’, media release, UK Government, 7 September 2022. ↩︎

AUKUS Update #1: May 2022

On the 16th of September 2021, the leaders of Australia, the UK and the US announced the creation of a new trilateral security partnership called ‘AUKUS’—Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

The three national leaders stated, ‘We will foster deeper integration of security and defense-related science, technology, industrial bases, and supply chains. And in particular, we will significantly deepen cooperation on a range of security and defense capabilities.’

At a time of rapidly increasing strategic uncertainty, when it’s increasingly clear that authoritarian regimes are willing to use military power to achieve their goals, it’s important to monitor the implementation of AUKUS so that governments and the public can assess whether it’s achieving the goal of accelerating the fielding of crucial military technologies.

To track the implementation of AUKUS, ASPI will publish regular updates on progress. This is the first of those updates.

UK, Australia and ASEAN cooperation for safer seas

A case for elevating the cyber–maritime security nexus

Summary

  • A safe and secure Indo-Pacific maritime domain is vital to the UK, Australia and Southeast Asian states for their national prosperity. While there are common objectives, the three parties have different priorities, capabilities and areas of expertis.
  • There’s a long history of multilateral cooperation between Southeast Asia and Australia, among other key partners. In the post-Brexit context and in the light of the UK Government’s Indo-Pacific tilt, London would do well to harmonise its maritime engagements with allies such as Australia and align its activities with priorities of Southeast Asian partners.
  • While maritime security cooperation at sea tends to be dominated by activities, programs and operations of navies, we recommend taking a comprehensive approach to maritime security cooperation that includes partnerships with non-military actors and considers civilian-related aspects of maritime security.
  • In finding a value-added role in the crowded space of maritime security cooperation and capacity building, we suggest exploring UK–Australia–ASEAN cooperation on issues of technology, cybersecurity and maritime-based digital infrastructure. Those are transformational aspects that will define the future of maritime activities in the Indo-Pacific and affect Southeast Asia’s safety, security, livelihoods and regional economic competitiveness.
  • This scoping report recommends UK–Australia–ASEAN cooperation to elevate and further explore the cyber–maritime security nexus.

Introduction: Understanding maritime security in the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific strategic concepts promulgated by Japan (reaffirmed in 2016)1, the US (2017)2, Australia (2017)3, India (2018)4, Germany (2020)5, the Netherlands (2020)6, the EU (2021)7, France (reaffirmed in 2021)8, the UK (2021)9 and others demonstrate the region’s geostrategic significance. While the various concepts differ significantly in scope, essence and strategy, they share one commonality: the idea of connected oceans in which Southeast Asian nations sit at the heart and form the epicentre of great-power competition that has come to define the Indo-Pacific. The region has become a ‘crowded space’ as the long-term and newer actors increase various engagement initiatives.

But Southeast Asia isn’t only an arena of competition: the region—collectively and as individual economies—has agency. ASEAN nations are able to steer competitors and partners towards meeting their own priorities.10 They’ve also been able to steer the global involvement towards political–military, economic, infrastructure and environmental agenda. While their overarching interests converge, the UK, Australia and their closest allies should acknowledge there may at times be divergences in approaches, activities and underlying values compared to those of ASEAN states.

In ASEAN’s 2019 Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, the 10 member states recognised the maritime domain as the foremost area for cooperation.11 However, the exact meaning of ‘maritime security’ is far from neatly defined. Discussions on maritime security have mainly focused on law enforcement at sea, the protection of sea lines of communication (SLOCs), the adequate management of fisheries and offshore resources, and the maintenance of sovereign maritime borders. By and large, issues of maritime security tend to focus on areas of regional security, transnational crime activities, economic and resource management, the marine environment and marine safety.

The maritime agenda is shared by ASEAN and its partners in the most extensive (by membership) security-focused institution—the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), which includes Australia, Canada, China, the EU, India, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, Russia and the US along with the ASEAN member states (Figure 1). Table 1 summarises the main forums for maritime security cooperation in the region.

Figure 1: The ASEAN Regional Forum members’ maritime security priorities

Data source: Annual security outlook 2021, ASEAN Regional Forum, 2021, online. Clustering and categorisation by the authors.

Table 1: Key forums for maritime security cooperation

a ‘15th ASEAN Regional Forum’, ASEAN, Singapore, 24 July 2008, online. Source: Authors’ compilation.

The UK’s Indo-Pacific tilt

The UK government’s Global Britain in a competitive age: the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy presents the Indo-Pacific as a region of increasing geopolitical and economic importance over the next decade and suggests that competition will play out in ‘regional militarisation, maritime tensions and contest over the rules and norms linked to trade and technology’.12 Therefore, seeking closer engagement with states in Southeast Asia is an essential part of a strategy that seeks to position the UK as a global actor in the era of strategic competition.The UK government’s Global Britain in a competitive age: the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy presents the Indo-Pacific as a region of increasing geopolitical and economic importance over the next decade and suggests that competition will play out in ‘regional militarisation, maritime tensions and contest over the rules and norms linked to trade and technology’. Therefore, seeking closer engagement with states in Southeast Asia is an essential part of a strategy that seeks to position the UK as a global actor in the era of strategic competition.

Anchors for the UK’s renewed engagement with Southeast Asia in maritime security

The UK became ASEAN’s newest dialogue partner in 2021,13 in what was a first milestone after the announcement of the government’s ‘Indo-Pacific tilt’.14 In the context of the UK’s exit from the EU, London has been looking at the right justifications for its priorities and for ways to meaningfully distinguish itself from, as well as coordinate where possible with, the Indo-Pacific approaches that the EU, France, Germany and the Netherlands have initiated in parallel.

While the Indo-Pacific tilt is new, the UK’s presence in the region, particularly its maritime presence, is not. London maintained a limited presence in Southeast Asia after the UK’s withdrawal in the 1960s and 1970s in the form of small-scale deployments aimed at maintaining bilateral engagements with selected countries. In the past two decades, the UK has also participated in established multilateral exercises that involve ASEAN countries, such as Exercise Bersama Lima and SEACAT (Table 2 and Figure 2). Those exercises involve a large number of ASEAN states and external partners and focus on capacity building in various maritime domains. They aim to address many issues, including current concerns about regional stability and security and long-term efforts in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR). The recent deployment of HMS Tamar and Spey to the Indo-Pacific are examples of the UK’s engagement with the Pacific. It would be interesting to see if it could become a possibility for future expansion of the scope to the wider Indo-Pacific.

Table 2: Selected flagship and regular multilateral exercises involving Australia, the UK and ASEAN countries

a The exercise was established under the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA). It’s been through many iterations since the first Exercise Bersatu Lima in 1972, including multiple expansions and renamings over the years. Exercise Bersama Lima was inaugurated in 2004 and was replaced by Exercise Bersama Gold in 2021 to celebrate the FPDA’s 50th jubilee. Source: Authors’ compilation based on official information.

Figure 2: Key multilateral exercises by Australia or UK with ASEAN countries in the Indo-Pacific

Map of South East Asia, with labels pins on Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and several pins indicating locations at sea.

This map includes naval exercises by the UK, Australia with Southeast Asian partners in the Indo-Pacific conducted since 2013. The multilateral and enduring exercises are marked in orange. The data set can further be filtered for partners involved, key exercise themes and frequency.

The UK’s new maritime security effort to engage ASEAN states has revolved around Operation Fortis which involved the CSG 21 to conduct a variety of exercises in and around Southeast Asia between June and December 2021. This included bilateral passing exercises (PASSEX) with Thailand,15 Malaysia16 and Vietnam17 navigating through the South China Sea in 2021.18

A factor in this effort is the UK’s ability to maintain sustainability and a regular at-sea presence. London’s early diplomacy and activities under the Indo-Pacific tilt still needs to be calibrated. With the new initiatives, however, London also needs to be sensitive to perceptions and even reputational risks in the region. Part of the scepticism about the UK’s role in the Indo-Pacific arises from the fact that the ‘Global Britain’ aspiration has a predominantly Euro-Atlantic focus.19 The arguments also stress the UK’s stronger reliance on the US at the expense of its interconnectedness with Europe.

Australia’s Indo-Pacific policy

As a maritime nation at the juncture of the Indian and the Pacific oceans, Australia pursues comprehensive and proactive maritime security engagement in the region. Canberra’s most recent policy expressions—the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper20 and the 2020 Defence Strategic Update21—have emphasised the importance of the maritime rules-based order and the value of cooperation with regional partners. Australia perceives the maritime domain as one of the key battlegrounds for China’s coercive practices, particularly in the South China Sea.

The Royal Australian Navy has a history of participation in maritime security exercises in the region, including multilateral exercises. Unlike the UK, Australia served as host and initiator of exercises that engaged numerous ASEAN states and other Western allies, for example Indo-Pacific Endeavour and Exercise KAKADU (see Figure 2). The exercises also had sizable scale and scope, including antisubmarine warfare and live-firing training with the intent of sharpening proficiency and interoperability. These are signs of significant commitment.

Compared with the UK, Australia has the advantage of being a residential actor in the region. Combined with an enduring track record of working with a closely knit network of regional partners across different agendas, as well as the recently annualised Australia–ASEAN summit, the engagement from Australian partners has stretched beyond official channels through civil society, research, industry and think-tank communities.

In fact, stability in the maritime domain, particularly in the South China Sea, has been a common concern for Australia and the UK. Opposition to China’s militarisation of the artificial islands, the dangerous use of coast guard and maritime militia that undermined countries’ maritime rights and freedoms were reiterated in the most recent Australia-UK Ministerial Consultations (AUKMIN) in January 2022.22 Boris Johnson’s government recognises the value of Australia’s long standing connection to Southeast Asia. In the bilateral virtual meeting in February 2022, the UK committed £25 million to strengthen regional resilience in areas including cyberspace, state threats and maritime security.23 This complements Australia’s ongoing efforts in supporting regional security and reaffirms mutual shared commitment to working with ASEAN.

Anchors for Australia to partner with the UK and Southeast Asia

Australia—ASEAN’s first dialogue partner—has had a history of engagement, including naval exercises and maritime capacity building, for decades, including invitations to Southeast Asian partners to join as observers to local and regional exercises.

In recognising the importance of regional engagement, Australia secured commitment from Southeast Asian partners to directly address threats against their territory. Australia’s engagement focus has also shifted from support to countering illegal activities at sea and providing HADR to strengthening regional maritime security and stability. This probably reflects the intensity and volatility of the Indo-Pacific waters.

Australia doesn’t have claims in the regional maritime disputes in the South China Sea, but it has vested interests in supporting the applicability of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS24) and the safety of sea lines of communication (SLOCs) for trade and passage. As co-chair of the ARF inter-sessional meeting on maritime security 2018-21, Australia has overseen a variety of confidence-building, regional support, training and workshop activities on UNCLOS that were initiated by individual ARF member states.25

In the past, Australia has lent a diplomatic voice to Southeast Asian partners, including by supporting and calling for the implementation of the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling in the case between the Philippines and China.26 Australia as a maritime nation is invested in securing the commercial interests of maritime trade,27 and the security of the maritime domain has also come to the forefront of strategic competition. This is in sync with the UK’s diplomatic support for a legal approach to the management of disputes. The UK has also supported the PCA ruling, as well as Southeast Asian nations’ note verbale to the UN in objection to China’s excessive claims.28

In Australia’s recent efforts to play a more influential role in Southeast Asia,29 the government announced a range of financial ‘packages’ that constituted the largest Australian funding for the region since assistance after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.30 Measures announced by Prime Minister Scott Morrison in November 2020 included a A$65 million investment to further support regional maritime states to develop their marine resources sustainably and to address challenges, including through enhanced training, technical advice and cooperation.31

In Southeast Asia, where postcolonial sensitivities linger, it’s important for both London and Canberra to calibrate new initiatives with adequate diplomacy and make sure the engagements are sustained for mutual benefit. This is particularly pertinent when the concept of the ‘Anglosphere’ is invoked.32 The following section highlights the complexity of Southeast Asian positions towards UK–Australian ambitions to play a stronger role in the region. Their adequate understanding is critical for sustainable and effective engagement frameworks.

Southeast Asian views of the recent UK and Australian maritime security engagement

Southeast Asian nations’ attention to the UK’s role and interests in the region was heightened after the deployment of the UK’s Carrier Strike Group 21 (CSG-21) in 2021. Although the UK’s military role in Southeast Asia isn’t new, CSG- 21’s presence in Asian waters produced a wave of reactions. During its 28-week deployment, CSG-21 visited some 40 countries and took part in more than 70 defence diplomacy activities across Europe, Middle East and Asia, which included training exercises and port visits. It was the UK’s largest operational naval deployment to Asia since the 1997 handover of Hong Kong.33

While the deployment was welcomed in some capitals, others expressed concern. Jakarta found the British naval presence worrying and perhaps contributing to further militarisation of the region. Indonesia was never fond of the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA) established in 1971, which involved the UK, Australia, New Zealand and its neighbours Malaysia and Singapore, but excluded Indonesia. The renewed activeness and ambitions of the UK in this domain invoked postcolonial discomfort. Indonesian strategists are concerned about an increasing ‘strategic overcrowdedness’34 caused by the renewed interest of ‘external powers’ in Southeast Asia. There is a feeling that too many naval ships exercising in the disputed waters may lead to incidents or accidents.

Hanoi, on the other hand, viewed the UK’s maritime activity positively. The Vietnamese government has applied a strategy of involving, rather than alienating, ‘external powers’. Due to power imbalances and China’s growing dominance in the South China Sea, its active militarisation activities and relentless challenge to other countries’ offshore resource rights, Vietnam has actively sought external partners’ involvement and engagement in the region. Moreover, for Hanoi, good relationships are also a function of improving trade relations. Vietnam and the UK have recently finalised a bilateral trade agreement, opening the post-Brexit British market to Vietnamese products and integrating the UK with the Asian economy.35 Singapore was also among the more welcoming Southeast Asian nations, although it stresses the need for a UK presence to be ‘principled, persistent and purposeful’.36

However, regional nations’ attention was most sharply focused by the announcement of the Australia–UK–US trilateral security partnership (AUKUS) in September 2021.

Predictably, individual countries reacted with varying degrees of concern. The dominating concern is that the new security arrangement could be a catalyst for a nuclear arms race in the region and might provoke some countries to act aggressively, especially in the South China Sea. Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob expressed that view directly to Scott Morrison, while Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry stated that it was ‘deeply concerned’ about the ‘continuing arms race and power projection in the region’.37 Both cited commitments engraved in ASEAN norms: the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) in 1971 and the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) in 1976, to the latter of which Australia acceded to when it joined the East Asia Summit (EAS) in 2005.38 They called on Canberra to refrain from adding to regional tension. It was kept in the dark about AUKUS despite the fact that it had a ‘2 + 2’ dialogue (defence and foreign ministers’ meetings) with Australia just before the announcement.39 However, in the following months, after some efforts towards direct communications from the Australian Government, Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto has been reported as saying that he understands and respects AUKUS.40 Cambodia was alarmed by AUKUS and the nuclear-powered submarine deal and invoked international commitments to non-proliferation.

The Philippines produced self-contradicting statements from the government. President Rodrigo Duterte labelled AUKUS as an ‘arms race’, while Secretary of Defence Delfin Lorenzana and Foreign Minister Teddy Locsin both said that Australia has every right, and capacity, to shore up its own defence.41 Thailand, a treaty ally of the US, maintained an enigmatic attitude, making no direct statements or comments on the AUKUS announcement. Singapore42 and Vietnam43 were more measured. Both agreed that each country is responsible for its own security, as long as it doesn’t contribute to a regional arms race. Both are strategically astute and are aware of the growing security concerns in the region and the region’s limited capability to respond to those challenges. So, while they comprehend the AUKUS rationale, they both emphasise the need for keeping nonproliferation commitments, as well as the need for greater transparency in communicating new security partnerships that may affect the region as a whole.

Despite disparities in their assessments of the strategic value of AUKUS, the overall Australia–ASEAN relationship is wide-ranging and didn’t seem to suffer, and, just a month after the AUKUS announcement, the elevation of the relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership was announced.44

The fact that there was no joint ASEAN statement on the issue reflects divergence of views internally. This granularity of regional interests and views is to remind London and Canberra that receptiveness to their individual as well as collective initiatives will remain varied. Given those political sensitivities, and the concern that the UK’s Indo-Pacific involvement has been too defence-focused, it would be good for London to consider areas for maritime security cooperation and capacity building that would include more civilian elements of maritime security. It is also the reason why our report recommends practical areas of cooperation—ones that prioritise collective benefit.

It is important to note that, despite Southeast Asian diplomatic narratives, there are real concerns about the fragile regional stability. China’s active militarisation in the South China Sea and gradual control of the waters put increasing pressure on the littoral states. Recent reports suggest that Beijing has fully militarised three islands with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment and fighter jets,45 which undeniably adds to the already asymmetric balance of power in the region. In such a context, cooperation with external partners on all fronts, particularly when the resources are limited and especially in the post-Covid circumstances, should be welcomed.

And there’s no shortage of areas where Southeast Asians would be open to cooperative efforts and collaborative mechanisms. Many studies have defined the prospects and challenges around the application of international law, resolving territorial disputes, maritime deterrence, protecting offshore resources, combating unregulated fishing, piracy, transnational crime, strengthening law enforcement, and addressing the more pressing environmental crisis.46

While we agree with the severity of these issues and the need for the involvement of multiple stakeholders involvement in this report, and through the specific prism of UK-Australian-ASEAN cooperation, we suggest a focus on the nexus of maritime security and cyber and emerging technologies. This is an under-studied area but which has the potential to drastically shape the nature of maritime security in the years ahead. It is related to the safety and security of deep-sea vessels at sea and maritime commercial on-shore infrastructure as well as the monitoring of human and natural activities at, below and above sea level; the security of sea lines of communication, maritime supply chains and increasingly critical submarine communications infrastructure.

Exploring UK-AU-ASEAN maritime security cooperation: a case for cyber and technology capacity building

Our main recommendation for UK–Australia–ASEAN collaboration is to explore the newer and rapidly developing, but far less chartered areas of cybersecurity and emerging technologies and their application in the maritime security domain.

In cyber and technology issues, the UK and Australia have a demonstrated track record and expertise, experience and approaches. It’s also an area in which the UK and Australia can reasonably expect to have resources, drawn from the public and private sectors, to sustain this effort. Most of all, it’s also an area of growing interest from partners in Southeast Asia which are putting digital transformation and Industry 4.0 at the forefront of their (post-Covid) development strategies.47

At the nexus of cyber, technology and maritime security, limited qualitative data currently exists on cybersecurity in Southeast Asia or the take-up of emerging technologies in the maritime sector. Given the UK’s and Australia’s global credibility in this space, and the importance of cyber and tech for the future stability of the region, we explore four potential areas of cooperation: cybersecurity and digital transformation in the maritime industry; digital and emerging tech in the maritime domain; supply chains; and the security of submarine digital infrastructure.

Cybersecurity and the maritime industry’s digitisation transformation

The digitisation of shipping processes and the automation of oceangoing vessels, operators, insurers, certifiers, onshore facilities, and maritime safety and security agencies have surged in the past few years. IT and OT (operational technology48) systems have become critical to the functioning of ships and the safety of their crews and cargoes, and also help shipping to navigate safely and securely through troubled Indo-Pacific waters. That said, given the lifespan of industrial assets (for ocean-going vessel about 25–30 years), much offshore and onshore infrastructure operate with legacy software, which is a known ICT security risk.49

Various maritime-specific cybersecurity incidents have occurred that have resulted in the malfunctioning of critical control systems, in ships and onshore facilities; the exfiltration of sensitive data that’s monetised by criminals, including pirates; the manipulation of systems to allow for trafficking and smuggling activities to occur unnoticed; commercial and military espionage, for instance of ship designs, lading and trading routes; spoofing of navigation systems; and manipulation of identification transmissions.50

The maritime sector is known to lag other comparable industries in its level of cybersecurity maturity. ‘C-suite’ boardrooms still don’t adequately acknowledge cybersecurity as a business continuity risk.51 That isn’t unique to the maritime industry and, in fact, is unfortunately common practice across Southeast Asian industries. However, the potential consequences of cybersecurity incidents for ships, logistics or port facilities are massive and long term.

An incident in 2021, in which the MS Ever Given obstructed traffic in the Suez Canal, immediately reverberated through global supply chains and demonstrated the dependence of the world economy’s on accurate forecasting capabilities.52 There’s little room for errors or delays. The maritime domain in and around Southeast Asia is becoming of greater geopolitical and geo-economic importance, and there’s an increased likelihood that non-state and state actors will try to disrupt, manipulate or coerce actors. With the automation of navigation and the vulnerability of navigation systems, for instance to spoofing, a crisis could be easily caused.

Other examples include some shippers being complicit in manipulating their own IT systems. In 2018, a Singapore-managed oil tanker spoofed its GPS data to conceal from authorities a mid-sea transfer of petroleum to a North Korean ship, thereby circumventing UN sanctions.53 The same thing occurred with an Iranian ship in 2013 off the coast of Malaysia.54 Those tactics are also being used to disguise illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, which is an issue pertinent to maritime security for most Southeast Asian nations.

Initial efforts to boost cyber resilience by the Southeast Asian shipping industry are underway, but they’re far from concerted. In late 2021, Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority organised a first cybersecurity exercise involving two port terminal operators and a shipping company.55 In 2021, the International Maritime Organization issued recommendations for maritime cyber risk management, mirroring standing international good practices but with compliance and enforcement remaining voluntary.56

A first stepping stone for cybersecurity capability is access to incident-response resources. In 2018, a private-sector initiative was announced by Wärtsilä Corporation and Templar Executives to establish an international maritime cyber centre of excellence, including a maritime-sector computer emergency response team, based on similar capabilities for the financial sector.57 The UK Government has supported British cybersecurity company CyberOwl to establish a footprint in the region.58 The Australian Government has been promoting business opportunities in Southeast Asia for the Australian local cybersecurity industry, too, although that effort is yet to have a specific maritime focus.59 At DEFCON, one the world’s largest annual hacking and security conferences, a Hack the Sea competition is being organised to specifically test cybersecurity in a maritime environment.60 For now, however, these efforts are just a drop in the ocean, given the magnitude of Southeast Asia’s maritime activity and the lack of an industry- and region-wide approach and apprehension of the risk.

Emerging digital technologies in the maritime domain

Digital and emerging technologies are starting to disrupt conventional business models and operations in the maritime industry. Gains in efficiency are achieved through the introduction of digital components in the shipping ecosystem, such as smart ships and e-ports.61 Next-level steps will include the introduction of partly autonomous surface ships, additional robotics and further automation of loading and offloading procedures.

Access to ‘maritime big data’, in combination with applications based on artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML), will help to inform decisions on most efficient routing, precise and reliable forecasting of scheduled arrivals, subsequent docking, off-boarding, load forwarding and reloading decisions, and risks related to maintenance and accidents.62 These emerging technologies also play a fundamental role in gathering and analysing meteorological, oceanographic and hydrographic data. They are also being applied to efforts related to responsible fishing (and combating illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing), the tracking of maritime pollution and the monitoring of maritime economic resources and biodiversity. For instance, Verumar, a programme focused on increasing situational awareness and fisheries management and supported by the UK’s Space Agency, identified nine groups of technologies that are disrupting fishing and other marine economic activities. They include space-based observation technologies, such as low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites; global navigation satellite systems, such as GPS, Galileo, Beidou and GLONASS; sensors and Internet of Things (IoT) devices; 5G connectivity; and data infrastructure and data processing (AI/ML, analytics.)63

These opportunities for broader and deeper maritime domain awareness (MDA), both onshore and offshore, have been at the centre of ongoing ARF attention. MDA is currently perceived fairly narrowly and restricted to highly traversed routes and those maritime areas under the supervision of coastguards. Human activities, marine animal movements and climatic trends occurring farther out to sea and below the surface remain largely unknown. LEO satellites will provide greater connectivity and coverage, especially in less serviced and remote areas,64 and better AI/ML is already helping to map and forecast movements in the ocean, such as sea-level change, currents65 and pollution dispersion.66 Unfortunately, Southeast Asia is also the world’s epicentre of marine pollution, especially plastics.67

The application of those technologies can also extend to assisting maritime operators in complying with existing international and domestic security provisions, such as the UN sanctions list, and helping maritime security agencies with oversight and compliance.68

Boosting the adoption of emerging technologies in parallel with improving cybersecurity in Southeast Asia’s maritime domain will contribute to strengthening overall awareness of civil and maritime security agencies, which not only supports security operations and law enforcement efforts but also offers new opportunities for more effective forms of marine protection and sustainable maritime socio-economic development. In global technology and standards-setting debates, the UK, Australia and Southeast Asia should consider how to reflect maritime requirements in those negotiations.

The Southeast Asian maritime sector will probably be best served by applications that rely on open, interoperable and secure digital infrastructure, given the sector’s global character, the many and diverse port infrastructures in Southeast Asia operated by many multinational service providers, and the traffic density in regional waters.

In the light of increasing risks of rising political, military and economic tensions in the Indo-Pacific, maritime nations in Southeast Asia should seek multinational and multi-stakeholder partnerships to adequately consider and address the potential risks of digitalising critical economic sectors. It appears Southeast Asian partners would benefit from access to expertise and opportunities to exchange experiences with peer communities in North and Northwestern Europe as well as in Oceania.

Digital technology and maritime supply chains

The maritime sector is a critical avenue for shipping resources and components for the world’s production and deployment of ICTs, tech hardware and batteries. For instance, supplies of critical, strategic or pivotal metals extracted in Australia that need to be transported to processing facilities in Southeast Asia and China. As acknowledged by the Australian Government, ‘technology supply chains are increasingly global, interdependent and complex’ and that there’s a need for transparency as ‘some states seek to leverage supply chain vulnerabilities for strategic advantage and as a possible vector for coercion.’69

In January 2022, due to delays and disruptions in global shipping, Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths opted to charter its own vessel and secure continuity of supply to customers through a processing facility in Malaysia.70 Overall, the industry is expected to need to meet demands for faster and more accurate and predictive shipping. As in particular Southeast Asia has been riding the wave of e-commerce71 , major manufacturers will require logistics partners that can ship more smaller loadings more instantly. That requires maritime transporters to be more flexible and agile. An ‘Uberisation’72 of maritime transport is already taking shape which may involve, in due course, a greater number of shippers operating with more small- and medium-sized transporters.73

Onshore, attention is shifting to the digitisation of processes at ports. This includes the establishment of interoperable data hubs where shippers, ports, buyers and sellers can instantly exchange data and communicate across the different transport segments; effective track and trace systems; the digitisation of the paper trail that accompanies international shipping, such as customs clearances and bills of lading; and the use of blockchain technology to ensure the safety and integrity of official documents and compliance with regulations.74

Altogether, these technological applications contribute to improvements in the transparency and security of financial transactions, including through government efforts to tackle trafficking, money laundering, tax evasion, organised crime and terrorism financing.

Security of marine-based digital infrastructure

A fourth component at the intersection of maritime security and cyber and tech is the security of submarine infrastructure. This mainly refers to the fibre-optic comms cables and relay stations that have been laid on the ocean floor and now transport 95% of the world’s data (Figure 3).75

Southeast Asia is not only a choke-point for maritime trade but also for internet connectivity. With a high concentration of fibre-optic cables landing in and traversing through the region, Southeast Asia is gradually developing into a hub for hyperscale data providers in the region’s digital economy.76 At the same time, Southeast Asian nations have been tightening ICT-related regulation and have imposed requirements on technology and connectivity providers that amount to establishing sovereign borders on the internet.77

Figure 3: Submarine cable map of the Indo-Pacific

Source: ‘Submarine cable map 2021’, TeleGeographyonline.

While deliberate disruptions to physical submarine communication systems won’t be difficult to cause, especially when exact locations are known, cables are more likely to get damaged as the result of natural disasters or accidental collisions.78 The Indonesian government recognised that vulnerability when, in March 2021, the Ministry of Fisheries and Maritime Affairs tasked the Indonesian Navy’s Hydrography and Oceanography Centre to map and potentially rearrange its underwater geophysical landscape of cable and pipes to mitigate potential threats.79 For unconfirmed reasons, Chinese survey vessels have been extensively surveying contested waters in the South China Sea.80 The survey areas coincide with the locations of major internet cables that connect mainland China with the rest of the world, predominantly through Singapore.

Another important factor to consider is the increasing imbalance in demand and supply. While private and public investors are keen to expand the regional cable network, the market is dominated by only five companies that provide cable-laying and maintenance services: Nokia Alcatel (Finland, France, UK); TE-Subcom (Switzerland, US); NEC (Japan); Fujitsu (Japan); and Huawei Marine (China). Submarine communications infrastructure has become a matter of geo-economic importance, particularly in places that are contested or have a low density of connection points. Australia, Japan and the US have ramped up investments in new and redundancy cables in the Indo-Pacific in efforts to head off competing Chinese investments.

Given the inherent physical vulnerability of the cable system and its critical importance to economies across the Indo-Pacific, boosting its resilience is an important priority. This includes up-to-date domain awareness, regular and updated security and safety reviews, consideration of the expected global shortage of maintenance and repair resources and adequate redundancy. With Britain’s world-leading expertise in hydrography and as host to the International Cable Protection Committee, the UK government could facilitate and stimulate greater knowledge in the Indo-Pacific of the maritime security dimensions of (dense networks of) submarine cables and shape effective regional risk mitigation responses.

Recommended next steps for cooperation

Integrating cyber and tech considerations into maritime security engagements offers the UK, Australia and Southeast Asia ample opportunities to construct a holistic agenda that will help to underpin regional security, and ward off threats to it. Moreover, given the nature of the agenda, it doesn’t require either a permanent, or even a physical, presence in the region.

The cyber and tech area enables the three partners to start collaborating in practical efforts that are shareable and scalable, are inherently civil in nature, and don’t require full political alignments from the outset. It’s a suitable area not only for regional but also for interagency cooperation.

Three recommended areas for next steps are:

  1. Investigate the needs and interests for a Southeast Asia-focused maritime sector-focused information sharing and analysis centre (ISAC). ISACs are non-profit organisations formed by critical infrastructure owners and operators to share information between government and industry.81 The ISAC should look at potential financial, staffing and infrastructure requirements. Given the current level of cybersecurity awareness and apprehension of the industry, a maritime-sector ISAC may initially require public funding before it can operate on a not-for-profit commercially viable basis. Such a service could be explored as part of a review of the mandate of ReCAAP.
  2. Explore developing a program of work on standards and norms related to emerging technologies and their impact on the maritime sector and maritime security, for instance through the Global Partnership on AI of which the UK, Australia and Singapore are members, and with a focus on maritime domain awareness.
  3. Facilitate the establishment of (informal) maritime and tech security communities of practice on issues such as cybersecurity trends and responses, and the security of submarine cable infrastructure and risk mitigation; and between individual governments’ hydrographic offices.

A further and deeper exploration of operational objectives for these areas is required, alongside a review of potential partners and delivery mechanisms. It will be crucial to work with existing and emerging local capabilities that can be supplemented by targeted UK and Australian expertise and enablers.

Since most cyber and tech dialogues take place outside of Southeast Asia’s conventional governance forums, it’s important for the UK to ascertain its ambitions, roles and representation, ideally in close coordination with Australia.

Conclusion

In this report, we’ve considered the landscape for maritime security cooperation, with a focus on exploring opportunities for new, practical and critical areas for cooperation that equally leverage the strengths of the UK, Australia and Southeast Asian partners. We’ve looked at potential areas of common interest in the military and civilian domains and reviewed the UK’s and Australia’s own national strategies in the Indo-Pacific and their respective national assets, as perceived by Southeast Asia. We’ve also noted that maritime security capacity building is seen as a crowded domain in which many international actors are already seeking to win the hearts and minds of partners in Southeast Asia.

There is a plethora of areas where the UK, in partnership with Australia, could contribute to maritime security in Southeast Asia. We suggest a reinvigorated plurilateral cooperation among the UK, Australia and Southeast Asian countries to focus on newly emerging areas that are yet underserved with attention, resources and policies. This isn’t a one-way engagement in which Southeast Asia is merely the beneficiary or recipient of engagements or technical assistance.

We’re making the case for elevating cybersecurity and emerging tech dimensions of maritime security. Managing the advent of new technologies in Southeast Asia’s maritime operations—military, civil and commercial—and securing the confidentiality, integrity and availability of systems and networks will increasingly underpin the safety and security of the maritime domain, including the legal aspects of maritime borders. Securing the digital components of the maritime domain is of common interest to all stakeholders, which is exemplified by our joint political and economic dependence on the region’s undersea fibre-optic cable systems.

For future steps, we recommend further in-depth studies to explore key priority areas for cooperation and to grasp the diverging and converging perceptions of urgency among Southeast Asian, Australian and British maritime security community groups. Such a survey should look with granularity at capacities, interests and priorities of and among ASEAN member states. A follow-up quantitative survey would be able to demonstrate the views of larger groups of stakeholders—governments, security services and the maritime industry—across the region. This would involve a systematic study that extends beyond security dialogues, discussions and roundtables of known experts and policymakers.

An in-depth study would be able to recognise individual countries’ preferences, measure capacity gaps among them and thus precisely identify the most effective modalities of cooperation. By having an understanding of converging priorities, the UK and Australia will be able to design an engagement and capacity-building framework that’s as sustainable as possible. That way, the UK and Australia could better position themselves as preferred partners of choice in maritime security in the Indo-Pacific.

Above all, we emphasise that, regardless of the issue-specific area of maritime security cooperation, engagements by the UK and Australia and jointly with Southeast Asia need to be enduring and continuous, based on mutual understanding and built on existing practices. Those are the key foundations for a lasting and effective cooperation with mutual benefit at the core.


Acknowledgements

The authors thank Dr Collin Koh Swee Lean (RSIS), Dr Anthony Bergin (ASPI), Charles Brown (Booz Allen Hamilton) and Jocelinn Kang (ASPI) for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of the report. We also acknowledge the contributions from consultations with colleagues from Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Royal Australian Navy’s Sea Power Centre, King’s College London, and various Southeast Asian think tanks and Southeast Asian maritime and cybersecurity industry.

Other ASPI research staff have also contributed to this report.

The conclusions are the authors’ own, and represent neither the views of any government nor a consensus of the experts consulted.

About ASPI

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute was formed in 2001 as an independent, non‑partisan think tank. Its core aim is to provide the Australian Government with fresh ideas on Australia’s defence, security and strategic policy choices. ASPI is responsible for informing the public on a range of strategic issues, generating new thinking for government and harnessing strategic thinking internationally. ASPI’s sources of funding are identified in our Annual Report, online at www.aspi.org.au and in the acknowledgements section of individual publications. ASPI remains independent in the content of the research and in all editorial judgements. It is incorporated as a company, and is governed by a Council with broad membership. ASPI’s core values are collegiality, originality & innovation, quality & excellence and independence.

ASPI’s publications—including this paper—are not intended in any way to express or reflect the views of the Australian Government. The opinions and recommendations in this paper are published by ASPI to promote public debate and understanding of strategic and defence issues. They reflect the personal views of the author(s) and should not be seen as representing the formal position of ASPI on any particular issue.

Important Disclaimer

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© The Australian Strategic Policy Institute Limited 2022

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First published March 2022. Cover image: Abstract low poly 3d cargo ship/vectorstock.com

Funding

Funding support for this report was provided via a grant from the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office through the UK High Commission in Canberra through a competitive grant proposal bidding process.

  1. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ‘Foreign policy: Free and open Indo-Pacific’, Japanese Government, 2022, online. ↩︎
  2. The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, December 2017, online. ↩︎
  3. Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper, Australian Government, 2017, online. ↩︎
  4. Ministry of External Affairs, ‘Prime Minister’s keynote address at Shangri-La Dialogue’, Indian Government, 1 June 2018, online. ↩︎
  5. Federal Foreign Office, Policy guidelines for the Indo-Pacific region, German Government, September 2020, online. ↩︎

  6. Indo-Pacific: Guidelines for strengthening Dutch and EU cooperation with partners in Asia, Netherlands Government, 2020, online. ↩︎
  7. EU Strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, European Union, 2021, online. ↩︎
  8. ‘France’s Indo-Pacific Strategy’, French Embassy, Canberra, 2021, online. ↩︎
  9. Louisa Brooke-Holland, Integrated review 2021: The defence tilt to the Indo-Pacific, UK Parliament, October, 2021, online. ↩︎
  10. Huong Le Thu, ‘Southeast Asia: Between asserting agency and muddling through’, in Ashley J Tellis, Alison Szalwinski, Michael Wills (eds), Strategic Asia 2021–2022: Navigating tumultuous times in the Indo-Pacific, National Bureau of Asian Research, 11 January 2022, online. ↩︎
  11. ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific 2019, ASEAN, 23 June 2019, online. ↩︎

What is AUKUS and what is it not?

What IS the new AUKUS partnership between the US, the UK and Australia? How does it fit with the Quad, ASEAN and other new forums like the government-tech Sydney Dialogue?

This new ASPI Insight sets out what AUKUS is—a technology accelerator that’s’ about shifting the military balance in the Indo Pacific. Just as importantly, it sets out what AUKUS it isn’t, to reset some of the discussion that has made some assumptions here. AUKUS isn’t a new alliance structure, a competitor to the Quad between Australia, India, Japan and the US, or a signal of decreased commitment to ASEAN forums by the AUKUS members.

And the Insight proposes some focus areas for implementation of this new ‘minilateral’ technology accelerator, including having  a single empowered person in each nation charged with implementation and ‘obstacle busting’. This is to break through the institutional, political and corporate permafrost that has prevented such rapid technological adoption by our militaries in recent decades. As is the case with James Miller in the US, this person should report to their national leader, not from inside the defence bureaucracies of the three nations.

On purpose and urgency, the report identifies a simple performance metric for AUKUS implementers over the next three years. On 20 January 2025, when the Australian prime minister calls whoever is the US president on that day, AUKUS has become such a successful piece of the furniture, with tangible results that have generated broad institutional, political and corporate support that, regardless of how warm or testy this leaders’ phone call is (think Turnbull-Trump in January 2016), AUKUS’s momentum continues.

Tag Archive for: AUKUS

Federalism could torpedo AUKUS

AUKUS is under pressure, not from adversaries abroad but from state governments at home. While Canberra drives the security pact forward, Australian states are the ones that that hold the constitutional levers over the land it will need, through their powers of zoning, environmental approvals and handling Indigenous rights.

States are already dealing with legal and political friction relating to this, and concerns over reliability of the United States as an ally may lead states to question the long-term value of their sacrifices.

The real opposition to AUKUS may ultimately come from Adelaide or Perth.

South Australia isn’t just building submarines—it’s building legal tension. The state recently fast-tracked legislation to smooth the path for AUKUS infrastructure at Osborne, but critics aren’t buying it. The Greens and local community groups say the new laws sidestep environmental oversight and shut the public out of decisions that reshape their suburbs. What looks like streamlined defence policy to Canberra looks more like executive overreach to inner-city Adelaide.

Western Australia may be next. With HMAS Stirling flagged for upgrades and nuclear training added to the mix, the state government will soon face its own AUKUS-related planning headaches. WA’s environmental protections are some of the strongest in the country. We may soon find out just how far they’ll bend under the weight of trilateral ambition.

In both states, the issues are the same: land, laws and legitimacy. AUKUS might be stamped with the Commonwealth seal, but the real action is unfolding on state soil. Zoning battles, nuclear questions, and Indigenous land rights aren’t just planning issues; they’re pressure points in our constitution. While no one wants to wade too deep into black-letter law, AUKUS is fast becoming a case study in how fragile Australia’s federal balance really is. While defence might be a national responsibility, it’s built—quite literally—on state foundations.

State concerns go well beyond turf wars. States are being asked to make permanent, often politically difficult changes, such as rezoning coastal areas, approving nuclear-related facilities and navigating complex heritage protections. But in return, they face uncertainty.

When asked about AUKUS, US President Donald Trump responded with his own question— ‘What does that mean?’—sending diplomatic shockwaves through Canberra.

Alliances, once assumed to be stable, can become suddenly transactional. If a future US administration walks back or redefines its AUKUS commitments, states will be the ones left with the consequences. They will have bent their planning rules and stirred local opposition for a security benefit that might vanish based on election results in Washington.

These pressures are converging. As a result, it is Australian states—not just the courts or Canberra insiders—that could prove the most formidable challengers to the next phase of AUKUS.

That opposition won’t necessarily be loud, dramatic or even headline-grabbing. It may look like legal challenges, bureaucratic roadblocks, and slow-walked approvals. It may come as litigation over environmental law and cultural heritage, or as quiet political resistance: premiers may begin to ask whether the federal government has done enough to justify the upheaval.

None of this means AUKUS is collapsing, but it does mean closer attention needs to be paid to states, especially Adelaide and Perth. Canberra cannot afford to treat AUKUS as a closed federal project. The government can’t assume consent, but rather earn it, and not just with federal funding announcements or defence white papers. AUKUS will increasingly require political legitimacy beyond Defence briefings and federal budgets.

To achieve that, the Commonwealth must engage more transparently with state governments, clarify the legal boundaries of implementation, and address public concerns about environmental, cultural, and economic impacts. Otherwise, the most significant resistance to Australia’s biggest strategic undertaking in a generation may come not from foreign adversaries, but from within—one zoning dispute at a time.

Showcasing the economic benefits of AUKUS—today

To convince the public of AUKUS’s value, government and industry messaging should focus on how the program can provide benefits in the near term—not in 20 years. AUKUS is a megaproject that will define the Indo-Pacific security landscape for decades to come. Its communications should reflect its stature.

AUKUS nations struggle to communicate the program’s immediate public benefits, according to industry representatives interviewed for this article and participants in an ASPI USA roundtable on the project’s communications. Focusing on AUKUS’s future deterrence potential is insufficient: most people rarely think about deterrence, let alone its application in the far future. But as AUKUS expands, so will its economic benefits and its ability to bolster civilian technology innovation.

Industry experts believe that they are best equipped to deliver AUKUS communications due to the secrecy and ineffectiveness of government messaging. Roundtable participants disagreed, believing that governments were best suited to lead messaging on their own programs.

In reality, government and industry will need to work together to demonstrate AUKUS’s benefits to the public. Simply talking about providing these economic and technological benefits at some uncertain point in the future will not work and may even create additional public frustration, particularly if further delays and controversies arise.

Public perception of the strengths and weaknesses of AUKUS will depend on the ability of government and industry to balance messaging priorities. Discussing future submarine production and delivery is inadequate alone. Even when there are tangible developments, opportunities for positive messaging are often missed. For example, Australia has provided significant monetary support for US shipbuilding. While this may have been big news in Australia, few in the United States noticed, even though it presented a perfect opportunity to highlight AUKUS nations’ current efforts in the program.

At the same time, controversies around AUKUS will not be forgotten, lessening the program’s potential to be publicly viewed as an economic and technological driver. This is bad news for both industry and governments, who need to attract workers in the high-demand, low-supply job market that is the manufacturing sector. Addressing the labour gap will require an enhanced approach to messaging focused on tangible benefits that are not decades away.

As a start, governments need to improve relationships with industry counterparts, especially in the US where the administration’s America First agenda has made industry experts nervous because of constantly shifting demand signals. Participants at the December roundtable noted that this harm to trust, trilaterally and within each of the partner countries, was detrimental to public perception. If industry entities are uneasy about investing in new jobs and factories, many of AUKUS’ economic benefits will be kicked further down the road. Governments need to do a better job at highlighting and facilitating shared regional growth and investment at the subnational level.

As well as this, there is a strong belief among industry experts that, with state, local, and federal government collaboration, direct engagement with young people will be crucial in defining the success of AUKUS. Young people are the generation who will see the beginning and end of AUKUS, through its wins and failures, for decades to come. Building goodwill now will benefit governments and industries. This will go beyond highlighting that working in manufacturing for AUKUS is working to build Australia’s defence. Groundwork must be laid for young people to build careers in the field.

AUKUS requires a strong base of workers, from welders to computer scientists. Many of the industries contributing to AUKUS are short of qualified talent. With government assistance, trade groups and corporations should increase direct support to scientific labs, students, and research at the collegiate and vocational training level, rather than supporting only military pursuits. Many AUKUS technologies are dual-use, extending far beyond pure military applications, including quantum computing and artificial intelligence.

Funding support for trade and technological skills will be crucial. Welding, for example, is not an easy task and requires significant training. Industries and governments across AUKUS nations can remedy workforce shortages by providing students with scholarships or other financial support in exchange for working in AUKUS-relevant industries.

These approaches can better serve the values and interests of young people as a whole by identifying brilliant individuals who can contribute to essential scientific pursuits. In doing so, AUKUS nations can provide clear and timely evidence of the program’s economic benefits. While we build the foundations for new facilities, we must educate the people who will work in them.

How to help the US Navy as it helps us: build a joint submarine facility

There’s a way for Australia to strengthen its case for the US presidential certification it will need for acquiring Virginia-class submarines. It should do so by accelerating construction of a planned shipyard in Western Australia and using it to help get US submarines out of a long maintenance queue.

Australia’s acquisition of three submarines from the United States’ stretched fleet and building yards could be offset by the additional operational availability of three US boats. The Australian yard would also improve support for US submarine operations in the Indo-Pacific.

By law, the US president will have to certify to Congress that transferring Virginia-class submarines to Australia will not degrade the US Navy’s undersea warfare capability. That certification will have to be provided no later than 270 days prior to the first transfer, which is scheduled for 2032.

The president will have to certify that the US and Australia are sufficiently investing in the submarine production and maintenance base to meet the requirements of both nations. This will require the current building rate of 1.2 Virginias a year to rise to 2.3 boats a year by 2032, which Australia will help achieve.

Australia could go further. It could reinforce the argument for certification by bringing forward the building of the shipyard planned for Henderson, Western Australia. Better still, Australia could establish this shipyard, by treaty, as a joint Australian-US facility, in recognition of its vital role in the alliance, which could be at least as significant as the contribution of the Pine Gap satellite ground station.

Why would such a joint facility be of value to the US? While Australians see AUKUS as a vehicle by which to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, the US sees it as a means for unlocking access to a vital operating location for its own submarines. This will be achieved by the rotational deployment to HMAS Stirling of four US submarines from 2027 under the Submarine Rotation Force—West (SRF-W) program.

Being able to operate routinely in the Indian Ocean without having to transit the congested littoral waters of Southeast Asia and in the Western Pacific in times of tension and conflict is of immense strategic value to the US. Being able to operate from HMAS Stirling with assured access to a nearby submarine maintenance facility at Henderson would, for the US, be better still. The US has no naval shipyard of its own west of Hawaii where it can maintain its submarines.

The Joint Defence Facility Henderson would be a maintenance, not building, yard for the US Navy. It would perform much deeper work than the support that HMAS Stirling will provide for SRF-W deployments.

It would become the US Navy’s fifth naval shipyard, adding to those in Maine, Virginia, Washington State and Hawaii. From Australia’s perspective, we have to build the shipyard at Henderson for our own purposes, anyway. Offering to operate it as a joint facility would ensure continuous workflow (as the facility would be the site for eventually maintaining 12 or more Australian and US submarines). This would assist in the recruitment and retention of what will need to be a long-term skilled workforce.

Becoming a trusted partner in an integrated allied submarine maintenance system would be an invaluable alliance contribution by Australia. The US Navy has a severe submarine maintenance backlog, currently forecast to last for decades. This backlog reduces the number of US submarines that can be put to sea. At the end of 2023, of a US Navy combat force of 48 attack submarines, 16 were in maintenance—that is, 33 percent. The US Navy is seeking to reduce that ratio to 20 percent; based on current fleet size, that would make six more submarines available to go to sea. Having access to an additional shipyard in Australia would assist the US Navy in achieving this maintenance goal. The US would have to pay for only labour and material costs for maintaining its own boats, taking advantage of Australia’s capital investment in Henderson for free.

To support the president’s certification, Australia could specially commit to ensuring access to Henderson such that the US Navy could reduce its maintenance backlog by at least three submarines between 2032 and 2038—which is when Australia is due to receive three Virginia-class boats (two refurbished and one new). Then the US would not be reducing its submarine force in honouring its AUKUS commitment. Beyond 2038, Australia could commit to further assisting the US to increase submarine availability. Over the very long term, by 2054 when the US and Australia would be operating a combined force of 74 attack submarines (66 in the US Navy and eight in the Royal Australian Navy), the two nations would between them have five naval shipyards and 22 drydocks for submarine maintenance, including Henderson.

To achieve this goal, Defence would need to cut through regulatory and construction obstacles, ideally aiming to have two operating drydocks ready in the Henderson shipyard by 2032 (perhaps using nuclear-certified floating docks at first, as Britain is seeking to do). Australia should seek to lock in such a treaty, thereby assuring itself of access to Virginia-class boats from 2032, by negotiating a deal with the Trump administration over the next 12 to 18 months.

If Australia does this, and assists the US to boost Virginia production, drives the development and production of the SSN-AUKUS submarine with Britain, extends the life of the Collinsclass fleet, builds a proposed East Coast submarine base and acquires uncrewed underwater combat vessels at scale (in the thousands of units), it will become an undersea naval superpower. However, this will require political and bureaucratic leadership and organisational drive that is rarely seen outside of wartime.

Shipbuilding to Citizenship: solving the US skills shortage with immigration

Skill-based immigration can help the United States fill its severe shortage of shipbuilding workers, for both naval and civilian construction. Bolstering the labour pool would help the US and its allies match the Chinese maritime pacing threat and specifically benefit the AUKUS submarine program.

As the US scrambles to meet AUKUS obligations to deliver Virginia-class submarines to Australia, the shortage has become a critical production bottleneck. The Naval Sea Systems Command has estimated that the US submarine industrial base needs to hire 100,000 skilled employees in the next decade to meet demand.

The submarine labour crisis stems from the smallness of the wider US shipbuilding industry. In 2023, the US produced 157,00 tonnes of shipping, which pales in comparison with China, which produced 32.8 million tonnes in the same year. Japan and Korea, the other two major shipbuilders, produced 9 million and 18 million tonnes, respectively. As for the other members of the AUKUS partnership, Britain produced 64,000 tonnes and Australia only 4,300 tonnes. The small size of the US base means that naval builders have a smaller workforce to draw on, and skilled workers often leave the industry when naval construction is low.

There has been no serious consideration of the suggestion of former secretary of the navy Carlos del Toro to open more immigration pathways for shipbuilders as a solution. Yet immigration-based labour generation has worked in the South Korean shipbuilding industry and offers unique advantages in the US context.

The US has long used naturalisation to attract people to critical sectors, including the military. More than 5,000 non-citizens enlist in the US military each year. Non-citizen soldiers tend to serve longer, and their children are more likely than other citizens to join the services. The EB-2 National Interest Waiver program provides a path to citizenship for advanced-degree professionals whose work is vital to the US national interest, including AI researchers, biomedical engineers, and materials scientists.

The US similarly needs more welders, additive manufacturing experts and numerical-control machinists in shipbuilding. It must also generate a sustainable long-term labour force. This can be accomplished with a Shipbuilder to Citizen program, in which workers with experience and skill sets critical to the submarine industrial base worked in the industry for a set period in exchange for permanent residency and a pathway towards citizenship. Indeed, such a program would be a generational investment: skilled trades are among the professions most likely to be passed down from parents to their children.

An immigration-based approach would attract many workers. The US immigration system is already overcrowded with applicants. Moreover, skilled tradespeople are somewhat overlooked by current US immigration policy, which focuses on either degree-holding professionals or seasonal unskilled labourers. Shipbuilder to Citizen would not only buttress the submarine industrial base; it would also address an inefficiency in the current immigration system.

Security implications must be addressed. The Naval Sea Systems Command allows only US citizens to build or repair US Navy vessels. But a policy that embraces immigration could in fact help to address security concerns.

Non-citizens and even illegal immigrants are already known to have worked and even died building and repairing US naval vessels, despite the navy’s rules. If immigrant workers had a legal pathway into the industry, contractors and subcontractors could disclose their presence, and the navy could more easily identify exactly what jobs they were doing. They could be restricted to less technologically sensitive process, such as hull welding. Moreover, civilian shipbuilding could be heavily staffed with immigrants, releasing skilled US citizens for sensitive naval work.

There can be no valid concern of immigrants taking American jobs, since a shortage of workers is what makes this conversation necessary in the first place. Even the much-heralded Accelerated Training in Defense Manufacturing program has produced only 700 graduates in three years. Not even a large influx of immigrants would be enough to close opportunities to the domestic workforce. Indeed, an immigration policy approach serves as a complement, rather than a competitor, to domestic labour generation strategies.

The US needs to move quickly to fulfil its commitment to Pillar One of AUKUS. Timely delivery of Virginia-class submarines is key to maintaining Indo-Pacific deterrence and strengthening mutually beneficial ties between the US and Australia. A Shipbuilder to Citizen pathway can help the US get back on track.

AUKUS and deterrence: what, exactly, are we trying to deter?

AUKUS is one of the most ambitious allied defence undertakings in decades. But for all the high-end platforms and advanced capabilities it promises, a fundamental question remains underexplored: what, exactly, is AUKUS seeking to deter?

This question matters—not just as a theoretical exercise, but as a strategic imperative that will shape the effectiveness, and ultimate success, of the AUKUS enterprise.

The behaviour set that we want to deter is not self-evident. AUKUS has often been described as a way to ‘complicate Beijing’s decision-making calculus’ and ensure that President Xi Jinping wakes up every morning and says, ‘not today.’ Australia’s 2024 National Defence Strategy (NDS) establishes a strategy of denial as the cornerstone of defence planning, but this broad ambition lacks the precision needed to guide investment, prioritise technologies and convey clear thresholds of unacceptable behaviour to adversaries. If we are serious about generating credible deterrent effects, we must first clarify which behaviours we want to stop.

This is where definition of a behaviour set becomes critical. AUKUS partners must decide which specific behaviours they want to deter—whether they’re cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, attempts to blockade Taiwan, deployment of maritime militias in disputed waters or transfer of sensitive military technology to proxy actors. This clarity is not only foundational to aligning threat perceptions and deterrence priorities among the three nations; it is essential to guide the development of capabilities under AUKUS Pillar One (nuclear submarines) and, more urgently, under Pillar Two (other technologies).

This is not an argument against the enterprise; it is an argument for sharpening its purpose.

When AUKUS was announced in 2021, public attention fixated on Australia’s future fleet of conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines. That debate, often reduced to cost comparisons with diesel-electric submarines, missed the broader strategic purpose. Nuclear attack submarines provide greater range, stealth, speed and endurance, allowing them to operate far from Australia’s shores and to remain undetected in contested environments. They are instruments of deterrence that complicate an adversary’s risk calculus.

But the deterrent value of AUKUS does not reside solely in the eventual arrival of nuclear submarines. AUKUS generates deterrent effects along the way. Forward rotational deployment of US and British nuclear-powered submarines to Western Australia increases allied presence in the Indo-Pacific, strengthens joint operations and disperses assets in ways that make them harder to track and target. These actions signal resolve and contribute to deterrence immediately.

AUKUS is also laying the groundwork for fundamental realignment of the partners’ defence industrial bases. Reforms are being implemented to remove barriers to innovation, streamline information-sharing, and create the conditions for joint research, development and production. These efforts are about creating an enabling environment where advanced capabilities can be fielded quickly and used to impose costs on potential aggressors.

This enabling environment is particularly relevant to Pillar Two of AUKUS, which encompasses advanced military technologies, including quantum systems, AI, autonomous vehicles, cyber tools, hypersonics and electronic warfare. These technologies offer asymmetric advantages and can be deployed rapidly. But their effectiveness as tools of deterrence depends on one thing: knowing what behaviours they are meant to deter.

The central risk is that without a clearly defined deterrence objective, Pillar Two efforts could become diffuse, driven more by what is technologically feasible than by what is strategically necessary. Technological capability alone is not enough. It must be linked to purpose. Strategic clarity will help identify demand signals, focus innovation and guide experimentation—because deterrence is about sending signals, and ambiguity works only if adversaries have something clear to fear miscalculating against.

AUKUS was never meant to be business as usual. It is intended to be a blueprint for allied defence industrial cooperation. For this to succeed, the private sector must be brought in as a full partner. That requires clarity from government, including on what specific adversary behaviours the partnership is trying to deter. Industry needs to know where it should focus resources.

At its core, AUKUS is about delivering strategic effects. It seeks to align political, bureaucratic, economic, technological and military ecosystems across three nations to respond to a shared systemic pacing threat posed by China. But delivering effects requires more than intent. It demands cohesion. It requires a shared understanding of how individual investments and actions combine to influence adversary decision-making.

AUKUS has rightly been framed as a long-term bet on peace through strength. But strength without strategic focus risks becoming blunt. And in a world where rivals are moving fast and shaping the strategic environment, AUKUS must do the same—with purpose, focus, and a firm grasp of what exactly it is trying to stop.

What else we could do with the money: AUKUS Plan Bs from a CSBA exercise

Sceptics of AUKUS Pillar 1, the nuclear-submarine element of the Australian-UK-US defence technology partnership, have called on the Australian government to go for a Plan B. Proposed alternatives have included buying nuclear submarines of French design instead or shifting resources for submarine procurement to critical technology development under AUKUS Pillar 2.

These sceptics raise a basic question: if Canberra were not to go ahead with AUKUS Pillar 1, what else could it spend its money on? What if it cancelled just its second phase, SSN-AUKUS, the class of submarines of British design intended for delivery to Australia beginning in the 2040s?

A series of exercises held in 2024 found that cancelling the SSN-AUKUS generated savings to invest in other critical missions such as maritime interdiction and air and missile defences. But the savings were not enough to buy alternative power projection platforms, such as B-21 bombers, as a hedge against uncertainty. Conversely, staying the course with SSN-AUKUS imposed a significant constraint on the Australian military’s other modernisation efforts.

Our organisation, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) conducted those force-rebalancing exercises as thought experiments. We convened leading thinkers and practitioners in both allied capitals to consider how the Australian Defence Force might rebalance its force structure over the next decade.

Six teams, three in Washington and three in Canberra, were tasked with working within a fixed budget to the mid-2030s, matching additional acquisitions for the ADF with divestments. The six teams each had six to eight members, who were assured of anonymity so they could discuss matters frankly. They wrestled with the AUKUS program, one among hundreds of capabilities they had to consider, as a resource trade-off question.

These exercises were not meant to predict, render verdicts on government policy, or advocate for specific outcomes. Rather, they were designed to stimulate open-ended debates about Australia’s policy, strategy, operational concepts and force structure that could inform policymakers’ choices.

Among the six teams, four cancelled the SSN-AUKUS. Notably, all three groups in Canberra chose to drop the program. All four arrived at the decision after much agonising, but they shared many of the misgivings that the AUKUS sceptics have expressed.

They had concerns about British industrial capacity, the daunting complexities of the program, the delivery timetable and the difficulty of operating the class in addition to Collins- and Virginia-class submarines. The Collinses are in service; at least three Virginias are scheduled to precede SSN-AUKUS submarines into Australian service, arriving in the 2030s.

All six teams remained committed to fielding SSNs, however. For the four that cancelled the SSN-AUKUS, Plan B was buying one additional Virginia-class sub and placing advance orders for more boats of the Virginia Block VII version as substitutes for the submarines of British design that would arrive in the 2040s. Australia has definite plans to buy only one submarine of the Block VII design, due for delivery in 2038.

Although the teams acknowledged hazards associated with buying more Virginias, including shipbuilding bottlenecks in the United States and possibly waning competitiveness of the long-established US design, they deemed such risks more acceptable than those associated with SSN-AUKUS. They also reasoned that this alternative pathway might allow the Royal Australian Navy to replace Collins-class submarines sooner and more cheaply.

Cancelling SSN-AUKUS freed up resources that allowed the four teams to pay for other priority capabilities. According to CSBA’s estimates, abandoning SSN-AUKUS generated a one-time saving of nearly A$11 billion. Some of the money paid for the additional early Virginia. The rest augmented air and missile defence and maritime defence along Australia’s northern approaches.

The two teams that stuck with SSN-AUKUS were more constrained in their choices. They could buy fewer capability enhancements than they wanted. For example, they had to do without expansion of munitions stockpiles. They also had to accept more risk in Australia’s ability to intercept incoming air and missile threats. The opportunity costs of fielding SSN-AUKUS submarines were obvious.

The exercises took place before the US presidential election in November 2024. If we ran the exercises now, the teams might make different choices. Nevertheless, their calculations about the risks and rewards between competing resource choices remain valid.

The inescapabilty of risk was a theme in the exercises. The teams that cancelled SSN-AUKUS accepted the risk that they may not receive the Virginias at the right times and in adequate numbers. A smaller Virginia-class SSN fleet would invariably reduce its operational availability. Moreover, the windfall from the SSN-AUKUS cancellation, although large, was not enough to field anything that might serve as a hedge against those risks, such as B-21 bombers.

Short of a significant increase in defence resources, such are the trade-offs facing Australia’s policymakers.

Britain recasts AUKUS for a new era

Britain once risked a reputation as the weak link in the trilateral AUKUS partnership. But now the appointment of an empowered senior official to drive the project forward and a new burst of British parliamentary engagement reveal an ambitious new posture.

This demonstration of seriousness and dynamism strengthens London’s legitimacy to secure a new era for AUKUS during the administration of US President Donald Trump.

While AUKUS addresses Australia’s existential need to acquire vital nuclear submarine technology and supports the United States’ central mission of strategic competition with China, Britain has at times struggled to craft a narrative that has secured genuine political purchase.

On one level, the British government’s previous lack of focus on AUKUS has been understandable. For the past three years, Britain has been consumed with the vital task of leading European support for Ukraine’s defence. The startling build-up of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border immediately followed the AUKUS announcement in September 2021. In the past few months, the fragility and urgency of the situation in Ukraine has necessarily forged a war-room focus on the Russian menace.

But it is hard not to feel that the fundamental issue has been that the AUKUS project has often been regarded in the British government not as an opportunity to be seized but as an allied responsibility needing to be serviced. This has sorely short-changed the national interest.

Advanced technology and innovation are central to Britain’s economic growth agenda. On this basis alone, AUKUS should be considered a national priority, as its second pillar provides the opportunity to accelerate cooperation in vital new frontiers of competition. And, while the origins of AUKUS lie in solving an Indo-Pacific problem, the capabilities it will produce are interoperable with NATO and can be deployed in Britain’s primary Euro-Atlantic security theatre.

The good news is that the winds are finally changing. Two recent announcements may shift Britain into the most active posture of the three partners.

The first is the confirmation that Sir Stephen Lovegrove has been appointed as Britain’s special representative for AUKUS. This new position will give him responsibility to drive the project forward and the authority to act as the nation’s point person for allies. Lovegrove served as the prime minister’s national security adviser during the conception of AUKUS and last year completed a landmark review into the project’s future. The review confronted past failures of governance, process and capacity and aimed to galvanise the British system to drive a new era of delivery based on a more focused set of priorities.

The second is the launch by the House of Commons Defence Select Committee of a new AUKUS inquiry, a substantive investigation into the government’s handling of the pact and the wider geopolitical context in which it is being advanced. The expansive scope and timeframe of this inquiry will enable it to serve as a mechanism of scrutiny and accountability for the government’s implementation of the AUKUS review. It will also deepen Parliament’s engagement with AUKUS, an area where Britain had previously lagged behind its American and Australian partners.

Both developments considerably enhance Britain’s stake in AUKUS and strengthen the government’s hand in its representations to the US.

There has been much anxiety as to whether Trump will remain committed to AUKUS. It is plainly unwise to assert that any project or alliance remains a sure bet in the current environment. However, there are early indications that suggest its survival, and even hint that it could be advanced with greater urgency due to the current administration’s laser focus on China and technological competition.

The Trump administration is still appointing its key AUKUS personnel. Britain and Australia will need to strike a delicate balance in highlighting the importance of the pact without drawing undue attention to its challenges. The most effective approach will be to offer a reset, to secure buy-in for its objectives through stronger alignment with the narratives and priorities of the new administration.

The revolutionary zeal of the Trump ecosystem presents opportunities to inject new energy and pace into AUKUS, in ways that would benefit all three partners. In particular, there is a chance to recognise that the current bureaucratic structures have not facilitated the delivery that deterrence demands and that the project must be recast to meet the spirit of its original intent.

Britain’s new AUKUS personnel, architecture and accountability mechanisms afford it the legitimacy to make this case in Washington. With its federal election coming in a few weeks, Australia should consider how to use the fresh start of a new political term to match Britain’s dynamism and demonstrate alignment with the pact’s strategic mission.

It is a sobering reality that AUKUS may well be one of the only meaningful allied co-creation projects, if not the only one, that secures the early commitment of the Trump administration. Britain and Australia must rise to meet this opportunity with the agility and ruthlessness this new era demands.

Australia’s plan for acquiring nuclear-powered submarines is on track

Since the announcement in September 2021 that Australia intended to acquire nuclear-powered submarines in partnership with Britain and the United States, the plan has received significant media attention, scepticism and criticism.

There are four major risks to the AUKUS national enterprise: the political will of all partners; delivery schedule; the cost of acquiring and sustaining the capability (including its impact on Australia’s broader Defence budget); and workforce challenges, both for uniformed personnel and within the submarine-building industry.

While these risks remain significant, the progress so far demonstrates a commitment to proactive mitigation. On the political front, the partnership demands considerable backing from Britain, the US and Australia amid global upheaval.

Yet despite changes in government across all three nations since AUKUS was first announced, the initiative has retained bipartisan support, a point reinforced by the US Congress supporting it through the passing of the National Defence Authorisation Act in December 2023, including the sale of three Virginia-class submarines to Australia.

The political will was further reinforced by the agreement of all three partners on the optimal pathway for Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines within 18 months of its announcement and the signing of the trilateral AUKUS treaty in August last year, which came into effect in January.

Although the treaty was finalised before US President Donald Trump’s election, the new US administration has since shown strong support, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio calling AUKUS ‘something that I think you’re going to find very strong support for in this administration’ and a ‘blueprint’ for co-operation.

The new US secretary of defense stated in February that ‘the president is very aware, supportive of AUKUS, recognises the importance of the defence industrial base’.

Regarding the cost risk, while it is undeniably substantial, it is not orders of magnitude higher than the ill-fated conventional Attack-class submarine project. Senate estimates from October 2021 put that project’s acquisition and sustainment costs at almost $235 billion through to 2080.

In last year’s budget, the Australian government included money in the Defence allocation to cover the expected costs of acquiring nuclear-powered submarines over the next decade. While the overall defence budget remains a significant concern, this measure has been an important step in mitigating the cost risks of AUKUS.

Australia has been steadily increasing nuclear-submariner training in the US and Britain, and since mid-2024, shipbuilders from South Australia and Western Australia have been training on nuclear-powered submarines in Hawaii.

Whether these measures will prove sufficient remains to be seen, but it is a promising start.

Schedule risks remain a key concern, particularly for the phase two sale of three Virginia-class submarines set to begin in 2032. The Collins-class vessels are already beyond their intended service life, meaning the entire plan hinges on the Virginias arriving on time—or at least only slightly delayed.

The 2023 National Defence Authorisation Act, which lies at the heart of Malcolm Turnbull’s concerns, mandates that in 2031—270 days before the sale of the first Virginia-class submarine—the US president certifies that certain conditions are met. Notably, the transfer of the submarines will not degrade US undersea capabilities.

As Turnbull correctly notes, the US submarine industrial base is already struggling to meet its planned production rate of two Virginia-class submarines per year and is unlikely to reach its goal of 66 attack submarines by 2054.

However, this does not mean that the US president in 2031 would seek to undermine Australia’s submarine program by refusing to sell three submarines. Undersea warfare effectiveness hinges on more than raw submarine numbers; it depends on having the right submarines in the right place at the right time.

This is where access to Australia’s western naval base, HMAS Stirling—and the maintenance facilities it will provide for US nuclear submarines—becomes crucial. It will help ensure US submarines can be deployed effectively when and where they are needed.

Australia’s broader contributions, including the continued support of the Harold E. Holt Communications Station north of Exmouth, further bolster US undersea warfare capabilities by facilitating secure communications with nuclear-powered submarines in the region.

It is imperative for Australia to make clear to the US just how vital submarines are to our national security, and to emphasise that the extensive support we provide, including access to Australia’s strategically important geography, is part of the deal. This is especially important given the more transactional nature of the current US administration and alliance framework.

In response to Turnbull’s call for an ‘urgent assessment’, the answer is that Australia’s plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines remains on track.

Yes, it carries significant risks—as any major national endeavour does—but the challenges have been identified, and mitigation measures are in place. The progress made over the last three and a half years is substantial. Rather than repeatedly reassessing the program, we should concentrate our political and intellectual capital on ensuring it stays the course.

The trials ahead for Pete Hegseth

Donald Trump’s new defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, has enormous challenges ahead of him—challenges that could seriously affect Australia by upsetting key elements of our ally’s defence position, including its ability to deliver the Virginia class submarines that are so crucial to our AUKUS plans.

At the heart of problem is Trump’s hallmark tax cuts and the space he needs to clear in the federal budget to enable the cuts without driving the deficit much deeper into the red. The Republicans are aiming to get their program through Congress by bundling everything together into one or two big omnibus bills. This should help them manage their narrow majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives, but it creates potential problems among the deficit hawks on their own right flank who will be stripped of the ability to debate the cost of individual programs.

This group of Republicans insist that changes to taxes and spending must be at least budget neutral. They are deeply disturbed by the fact that, since the end of the Cold War, government debt has grown from about 40 percent of GDP to 123 percent today and is still rising at about 9 percent per annum.  Unchecked, it could get to about 195 percent of GDP by 2050.

The principal threat to an ability to balance the budget is Trump’s desired tax cuts. The Committee for Responsible Federal Budget calculates that they would cost between US$5 trillion and US$11.2 trillion through to 2035, counting both the permanent extension of Trump’s first term tax cuts—which are due to expire at the end of this year—and new cuts he has promised. These have both been flagged as top administration priorities.

Although Trump seems intent on using tariffs to boost revenue—unlike in his first term, when he was motivated by protecting American industry—it is clear his tariff policy will not resolve his deficit problem should he press his tax changes.

The Tax Foundation, an independent non-profit organisation, estimates that a universal 10 percent tariff would raise $2 trillion through to 2034 and a 20 percent tariff $3.3 trillion—though it would be less if, as expected the tariffs shrink the US economy. This would ‘fall well short of what is needed’ to cover the permanent extension of Trump’s first term tax cuts, let alone the new cuts.

Meanwhile, Trump has outsourced the task of cutting spending to self-proclaimed ‘first buddy’ Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.  It reportedly is staffed mostly by young men Musk has brought across from the tech sector who have the job of eliminating programs and public servants. Musk suggests that any serious problems arising from haste will be fixed later. Sometimes, as with the sacking of many of those assigned to the supervision of the nuclear weapons stockpile, they have had to be fixed sooner rather than later.

This is one part of the headache Hegseth will soon have to deal with.  He is responsible for the most complex and expensive department outside those that handle social payments. Defence also has the deepest and strongest cultural disciplines—particularly in the armed services—and the most complex and expensive technologies in the world. Going into the November election, the approved outlays for defence were US$895 billion. Trump promised an increase but has since pointed the DOGE directly at defence.

In an interview on Super Bowl day, Trump said he expected to find ‘billions, hundreds of millions in fraud and abuse’ in defence. His national security advisor, Mike Waltz, suggested in a separate interview that ‘the Pentagon in general is full of unnecessary bloat’ and directed aim particularly at shipbuilding, which he said was ‘a mess’.  Yet that program is at the heart of American power.  It is also quantitively, and increasingly qualitatively, challenged by Chinese programs. The shipbuilding industry and the systems supporting the United States Navy are among the most sensitive that the US has.

They are also particularly vital for Australia. The rate at which the US can build submarines needs to improve if they are to deliver Virginia class boats to the Royal Australian Navy in the 2030s, as planned under AUKUS. Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles made a $500 million down payment to enhance the US submarine industrial base as part of the AUKUS package during his positive meeting with Hegseth in early February—the first Hegseth had with a foreign counterpart. Hegseth committed himself to the AUKUS programme including the sale of Virginias, which will be a formidable deterrent and a critical part of Australia’s defence.

Senior Pentagon official Robert Salesses said in a statement this week that Hegseth had launched a review to find 8 percent of the defence budget for the 2026 financial year—about $50 billion—in offsets that would realign spending towards priorities such as border security, an Iron Dome-style aerial defence system. Hegseth had also ordered an end to ‘diversity, equity and inclusion’ type programs. The Washington Post reported the existence of a memo indicating these offsets—which the news report called ‘cuts’—would continue for five years, though it noted that submarine acquisition was among the categories listed for exemption.

The US submarine output rate has been gradually coming up to the levels of production necessary for the AUKUS timetable. What will happen now?

The shipbuilding program, the assertive posture of DOGE and any cuts to the Pentagon overall, represent for Hegseth a massive difficulty. A defense secretary doesn’t have to be loved, but he or she does have to be respected.  This includes respect for the values the armed services evince. The military is proud of its capacity to incorporate women and people of colour in all facets of command and recruitment. Above all is a requirement that its manifold security arrangements cannot be put in the hands of people not qualified and cleared. The youngsters of DOGE are not. The Pentagon will look to Hegseth for that protection—as indeed will we and all the military allies of the US.

If it is thought in the Pentagon that Hegseth can’t cope with the need to protect both secrecy and capability, he will be lost. For any defense secretary, such a failure would be intolerable. It will be particularly so for congressional Republicans who have had to swallow a great deal to approve the appointments of Trump’s choices in the national security area.

All this will be playing out in an environment in which one or two omnibus bills will be hotly contested in Congress.

It has to be remembered that the US is not at the peak of post-World War II spending.  Were that to be the case, defence spending would not be at $895 billion; it would be closer to $2 trillion. Chinese and Russian expenditures are at least as great as they were during the Cold War.

The US is looking for a massive increase in allied spending. Trump has set targets of at least 3.5 percent of GDP, hopefully 5 percent. The allies are nowhere near these targets. Australia is increasing to 2.4 percent of GDP—far short of what Trump wants. We can expect the US administration to come at us. But our challenge is miniscule compared to that facing Hegseth.

AUKUS and war powers: aligning decision-making for effective defence

AUKUS has a fundamental, unaddressed challenge: the differences in how each member nation exercises its war powers.

The AUKUS security partnership—comprising Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States—has the potential to be a transformative force in the Indo-Pacific. As strategic competition intensifies in the region, the alliance is expected to enhance defence capabilities and deepen cooperation. Yet the building blocks are not aligned.

The members need to establish guidelines on the circumstances in which they’d act together militarily, and there should be a standing organisation for coordination.

While AUKUS is not a military alliance designed for joint combat operations—unlike ANZUS or the Five Power Defence Arrangements—its ability to enhance regional security depends on seamless coordination. Its objectives, particularly in deterrence and sharing advanced capability sharing, could be compromised if its members struggle to respond coherently in a crisis. A key vulnerability is the differing processes each country follows when authorising military action, potentially leading to hesitation, misalignment or even strategic paralysis.

A recent report from King’s College London, AUKUS and War Powers: The impact of constitutional constraints on military action, examines this issue in depth. The report highlights how divergent legal and constitutional frameworks across the three nations could hinder joint military action.

Each AUKUS member has a distinct approach to military decision-making, shaped by its constitutional framework and political traditions.

In Australia, the prime minister and cabinet have the authority to deploy the Australian Defence Force without parliamentary approval. While Parliament is often informed or consulted, there is no legal requirement for debate or endorsement. This system allows for rapid decision-making but limits broader democratic oversight.

In Britain, the prime minister, exercising royal prerogative, can commit forces to military operations without formal parliamentary approval. However, political norms increasingly require parliamentary debate before significant deployments, as demonstrated in 2013 when the House of Commons voted against military intervention in Syria.

Finally, in the United States, the president has broad authority to initiate military operations, but congress retains the constitutional power to declare war. While the War Powers Resolution of 1973 requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of deploying forces and to withdraw them within 60 days without congressional authorisation, this process has been frequently contested.

These differences create potential friction in security cooperation. The lack of a shared decision-making process could make AUKUS slow to react in a crisis, with each nation’s domestic political dynamics affecting the speed and scope of any response.

The challenge of war powers divergence is not theoretical; it has played out in recent history. The 2013 Syrian crisis illustrated how different decision-making systems can lead to disjointed outcomes. The US, under president Barack Obama, was prepared to conduct airstrikes following Syria’s use of chemical weapons, but the British parliament rejected military action. This created hesitation and weakened the credibility of the response. The delay in unified action had broader strategic consequences, emboldening adversaries and complicating Western deterrence efforts.

In an Indo-Pacific crisis, similar delays could be even more damaging. If China were to take coercive action against Taiwan or increase its activities in contested waters, AUKUS nations might struggle to coordinate an effective response. The inability to act in unison would weaken deterrence, sending mixed signals to both allies and adversaries.

For AUKUS to function effectively, its members must address decision-making challenges. While no solution will fully harmonise their constitutional constraints, practical measures can enhance coordination.

Firstly, AUKUS members could establish guidelines outlining conditions under which military cooperation would be expected. These could include specific thresholds for security threats that would trigger joint planning and response measures, even if formal approval processes differ.

Secondly, a standing coordination mechanism, such as a security council or emergency response group, could streamline communication and facilitate rapid alignment on military matters. While this body would not override national sovereignty, it could provide a framework for crisis response.

Finally, instituting a requirement for senior leaders to consult before major military deployments could ensure greater cohesion, even if parliamentary or congressional approvals are needed at different stages. This would help synchronise political messaging and strategic intent.

AUKUS is designed to deepen defence cooperation and technology sharing between Australia, Britain and the US. However, its strategic credibility depends on how well its members can navigate their war powers differences. Without clearer mechanisms for decision-making, the partnership could face operational constraints that undermine its deterrence value.

The Indo-Pacific is increasingly volatile, with rising military competition, grey-zone operations and geopolitical uncertainties. AUKUS must be more than a symbol of strategic alignment—it must be a functional and responsive initiative. Addressing the war powers gap is not just a procedural challenge—it is a strategic imperative for ensuring AUKUS can contribute to regional security.