One year on: no agreement for New Caledonia despite serious negotiations
It’s been a year since massive riots shook New Caledonia, but progress towards a long-term agreement on the territory’s status has been slow. Last week, intense closed-door talks failed to reach concensus. The discussions centred on two proposals: one by Paris for ‘sovereignty with France’ and the other by loyalists for ‘federalism within the French Republic’.
In late April, French Minister for Overseas Territories Manuel Valls arrived in New Caledonia—his third visit since February—to bring together local political parties for an intense round of negotiations. Valls even promised to remain in the territory until they reached an agreement.
These negotiations followed riots that broke out on 13 May last year. The violence reflected underlying tensions but was ignited by French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to amend the constitution to expand the electoral roll. This would extend voting rights to residents of at least 10 years—a move seen by indigenous Kanaks as an attempt to further dilute their voting power.
This followed three failed referendums on independence, although the third result was disputed as the Kanak population boycotted amid a Covid-19 outbreak.
In response to the 2024 riots, the French government declared a state of emergency. It deployed excessive military force, later prompting the United Nations to release a statement of condemnation.
Paris first suspended the electoral reforms in June before abandoning the proposed changes in October. By then, 13 people had been killed, including 11 indigenous Kanaks and two French officers.
The Pacific Islands Forum was keen to play its role as a neutral regional actor. After some delays, the prime ministers of Fiji, Tonga and Cook Islands led a three-day observational mission in October to gather information and provide assessment to the forum. They are expected to present their findings at the leaders’ summit in early September this year.
During the observational mission, Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka and Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown suggested the deployment of forces from the newly established Pacific Policing Initiative.
French authorities weren’t convinced. France’s Ambassador to the Pacific Veronique Roger-Lacan stated that regional policing had not been discussed, clarifying that ‘security is the exclusive competence of the French State’. But a regional force could be a neutral alternative to France’s policing efforts, given the criticism of latter’s heavy-handed crackdown.
Paris tried to increase its engagement with the territory after the riots, but spent the second half of 2024 preoccupied by a prolonged domestic political crisis, weakening its response.
During a mid-October visit to New Caledonia, France’s newly appointed minister of the overseas, François-Noel Buffet, could only promise up to €500 million in loans and funds for the reconstruction of all schools and 70 percent of public buildings. However, the total damage was estimated at more than €2 billion.
The French government eventually fell to a motion of no confidence in December.
Valls has taken the issue seriously and, under his guidance, negotiations have progressed well. In April, a draft document was leaked that appeared to acknowledge further delegation of ‘soveriegn competencies’ to authorities in Noumea. Valls denied the document was an official proposal from France, claiming the paper was a result of earlier talks in February and March.
The Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front, the dominant pro-independence group, initially accepted the proposal as the basis of negotiations, but also stated that they would not be rushed to an agreement. The language around delegation of sovereign powers concerned loyalists that France was abandoning the territory. As a result, loyalists walked out of a multilateral negotiation in early May, before key figures entered into a conclave for intense discussion on 5 May.
That closed-door discussion covered the two proposals. There was some convergence around reinforcing New Caledonia’s competence in international relations and even security, including the training of military personnel, albeit in a shared manner. But this failed to translate into a full agreement. While France seems willing to seriously discuss future institutional arrangements—short of independence—even that appears too far for loyalists.
However, changes to the electoral roll remain a sticking point.
Provincial elections, initially planned for last year, are now expected in December. New Caledonians may end up going to the polls without an agreement, risking further tensions by potentially undermining electoral legitimacy.
While negotiations are for Paris and Noumea alone, stability is in the region’s interest. As New Caledonia’s competencies in international relations and security are discussed, there is room for more engagement with regional partners.
Australia must build its understanding of New Caledonia to support any emerging concensus, or ensure it is better prepared should further violence erupt. A passive Australia is a bad look to its Pacific family.
The path forward will almost certainly be slow and frustrating but progress is welcome.