24 October 2011
North Korea: truculent but worrisome
By Rod Lyon and Kim Wilkinson
The wheels of change are moving in North Korea.
This paper argues that while succession is looking more assured in Pyongyang – with Kim Jong-eun set to accede to the leadership – this period represents a time of potential instability in North Korea.
Additionally, the North’s unveiling of a uranium enrichment facility, and their 2010 military provocations are cause for concern.
In the midst of these developments, the authors argue that the prospect for a negotiated solution of the North’s nuclear program look slim – it is unlikely the North will trade away their nuclear trump card. While inter-Korean dialogue is showing signs of life, the Six Party Talks are yet to be revived. Therefore it is likely that the peninsula will remain one of Asia’s most challenging flashpoints for some time to come.