The Presidential debate last week was tough viewing. In the aftermath of President Joe Biden’s faltering performance, and the Supreme Court’s favourable ruling on Donald Trump’s immunity claim, Australia needs to supercharge its planning, because the odds of a second Trump presidency have seemingly shortened.
Australia, like many countries, has been preparing for a possible second Trump administration. Ambassador Kevin Rudd’s Twitter account provides insights into how hard he and our embassy in Washington are working. But as we get closer to the election, there needs to be an approach that goes well beyond the embassy and traditional diplomacy. 
Australia needs a laser-focused strategy that is ambitious, well-resourced and co-ordinated across all arms of government.
Our ability to navigate another Trump presidency depends on the creation and implementation of a one-of-a-kind strategic plan that considers every risk, predicts curve balls, and foreshadows decisions that affect us. This is difficult, but not impossible. 
During the first Trump presidency, there was some conservative commonality between the ruling parties in both countries, which won’t be the case this time—noting Australia is set to have its own election within the next 11 months. This adds an extra dimension to the complexities that would need to be managed.
Scenarios should be workshopped and tested, including with well-connected people from business and civil society. Options should be developed that would help deter policy directions that are not in Australia’s interests or those of our broader region. No doubt a lot of work is already going into future-proofing AUKUS, for example—a job that will have to ramp up significantly if Trump is re-elected. Trump might change direction on the partnership. He could decide to stay committed to just one of the two pillars, or seek to renegotiate the terms of the arrangement.
In addition to defence issues, Australia’s strategy will also need to cover economic security, trade and industrial policy, societal impacts, international affairs and security.
The strategy must also have an offensive element and prepare Australia to capitalise on opportunities, including by making plans to support partners and allies during times of great difficulty, or worse, crisis. Australia fared well during the first Trump presidency and, along with partners such as Japan and India, has lessons it can share that could strengthen our partners’ hands. 
What follows are six priorities the Australian Government should pursue immediately.

Read the full article on the Strategist here.

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