Nathalie Tocci on the birth of a new Europe, and what it means for Australian security

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen this week initiated a conversation about a security partnership with Australia. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese responded with a ‘maybe, sort of’.

To talk about this development and much more, we have Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, former adviser to two EU presidents and one of the world’s top experts on European foreign and strategic policy. Nathalie gives her thoughts on the link between European and Indo-Pacific security, the China-Russia relationship, the centrality of Ukraine to European security, and the best and worst possibilities for US support to Ukraine under Donald Trump.

Nathalie also outlines her (very useful) theory about ‘thick’ and ‘thin’ norms as foundations for international cooperation, and expands on a wonderful line she wrote recently in the Guardian about what it would take for Europe to pull itself together security-wise.

Sir Lawrence Freedman on the delusions that plague war planners

Wars are easy to start, hard to end and are often launched with political goals that are loftier than the planning and capabilities that are committed. In today’s episode, Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London, talks about the “short war fallacy” and why strategists keep planning for quick victories when long and costly conflicts are demonstrably the norm.

Lawrence discusses Putin’s misjudged invasion of Ukraine, the way forward—and significant obstacles—for Kyiv, Moscow and Washington, other long conflicts around the globe including those in Africa and what Xi Jinping might be thinking about Taiwan.

He explains how mass remains a key factor in warfare, and the ways in which new technology and old realities converge to create layers in modern warfighting. He caps off with some thoughts on nuclear strategy and the recent flareup between India and Pakistan.

You can read Lawrence’s recent Foreign Affairs Article, “The Age of Forever Wars: Why Minister Strategy No Longer Delivers Victory”.

⁠

And read his substack here.

What satellites reveal about the clash over Kashmir. With Nathan Ruser

ASPI’s geospatial analyst Nathan Ruser reveals what he’s found by studying satellite imagery of the recent India-Pakistan clashes over Kashmir, in a special episode of Stop the World. This includes use of images for disinformation in ways he hasn’t seen before in his years of poring over satellite pictures geolocation data.

Alongside the military clashes the Indian and Pakistani governments, and their respective supporters, have been battling in the information domain, a typical pattern that is becoming ever more competitive with new technology, especially generative artificial intelligence.

Nathan’s globally recognised skills as a geospatial analyst are put to full use in this episode that will be useful to anyone interested in South Asia, disinformation, deepfakes, AI and nuclear stability.

Ahmed Kodouda on the spiralling war and humanitarian crisis in Sudan

Ahmed Kodouda on the spiralling war and humanitarian crisis in Sudan

The war that has gripped Sudan for more than two years and cost 150,000 lives is a shifting mosaic of alliances and rivalries, lumped under two main groups. There’s the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Force, led respectively by two men who were once allies but are now locked in a titanic power struggle that has displaced 13 million people and is causing widespread famine.

Today we’re joined by Ahmed Kodouda, a humanitarian policy and operations expert who’s worked with NGOs, governments, and international institutions around the world. He also served as a senior advisor to Sudan’s civilian-led transitional government following the country’s democratic uprising in 2019.

Ahmed explains the complexities of the conflict, the groups involved, the background, the impact on the country’s roughly 50 million people, the influence of outside countries in particular the United Arab Emirates, and the inadequate response of the international community.

Show notes

Foreign Affairs article, “Sudan is unravelling”, by Mai Hassan and Ahmed Kodouda

Special episode: Will India and Pakistan go nuclear? With Raji Rajagopalan

After Pakistan-based militants murdered more than two dozen Indian tourists in Pahalgam in Kashmir, India retaliated by striking nine sites it says housed “terrorist infrastructure”. Pakistan in turn says it shot down several Indian fighter planes.

In this special snap episode, ASPI Resident Senior Fellow Raji Pillai Rajagopalan gives us her insights on whether the two nuclear armed arch rivals will bring the crisis temperature down and avoid the ultimate nightmare—escalation that goes nuclear.

Mentioned in this episode: 

India and Pakistan must manage escalation after Pahalgam attack, by Raji Rajagopalan

X thread by Nathan Ruser

All the world’s a stage but is Australian politics playing its part, with Laura Tingle and Peter Hartcher

As Australians head to the polls, David Wroe interviews two of the best minds on the intersection of Australian politics and global affairs – the ABC 7.30 program’s political editor Laura Tingle and The Age’s political and international editor, Peter Hartcher.

As well as their reflections on the substance of the election campaign, the conversation considers the challenges to Australia from the current global geopolitical outlook and whether we are having the right policy debates about how we can and should respond over the long term. Given the security threats we face and the investments being made in defence, including through AUKUS, are politicians having the right conversations with the Australian public to ensure both understanding and support for expansive policy ideas?

This conversation tackles all the big issues, including economic security, defence, Trump, AUKUS and China and, while recorded in the context of this week’s election, it will remain relevant well beyond it as these are challenges that will face the next Australian government and future generations in the years ahead.

Democracy in the age of disinformation, with Audrey Tang

Audrey Tang is the unflappable Jedi knight of technology and democracy, who can connect with different political perspectives. Audrey was the inaugural digital minister of Taiwan and is now ambassador-at-large for cyber affairs. She came to prominence first as an open source programmer and hacker, before becoming involved in Taiwan’s successful Sunflower Movement demonstrations of 2014, and then joining the government in 2016 at age 35, making her the youngest minister ever in Taiwan’s cabinet and the world’s first non-binary cabinet minister.  She holds the world’s attention on issues like countering disinformation and using technology to enhance democracy including by reducing political polarisation.

Audrey talks about Taiwan’s approach to combatting disinformation without top down moderation, countering authoritarianism without becoming authoritarian yourself, the importance of facts and truth, free speech, new models of social media that reduce polarisation, why she went on Laura Loomer’s podcast, and the way authoritarian China has prompted Taiwan’s democratic approach to technology and online information.

The FT’s Demetri Sevastopulo on Trump’s tariffs and the disappearing Chinese general

The United States-China tit-for-tat tariffs have been escalating faster than the bids at a Sydney house auction in the early 2010s. ‘Trade war’ is the headline. But does Donald Trump have a strategy to decouple, or is he angling for a grand bargain? Either way, Xi Jinping is making it clear that China has a vote (even if its people don’t).

Demetri Sevastopulo, the Financial Times’ US-China correspondent, explains the possible plays behind the numbers, the rival points of leverage in the brewing trade war, the implications for US partners and allies, the competition for influence within the Trump administration, and the latest on TikTok and Taiwan.

Demetri also gives us a real-time analysis of his latest scoop in the FT, revealing the purging of the PLA’s number two general, He Weidong.

The road to artificial general intelligence, with Helen Toner

Australian AI expert Helen Toner is the Director of Strategy and Foundational Research Grants at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). She also spent two years on the board of OpenAI, which put her at the centre of the dramatic events in late 2023 when OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was briefly sacked before being reinstated.

David Wroe speaks with Helen about the curve humanity is on towards artificial general intelligence—which will be equal to or better than humans at everything—progress with the new “reasoning” models; the arrival of China’s DeepSeek; the need for regulation; democracy and AI; and the risks of AI.

They finish by discussing what will life be like if we get AI right and it solves all our problems for us? Will it be great, or boring?

Bringing Russia’s war criminals to justice, with Nobel Prize winner Oleksandra Matviichuk

Ukrainian human rights lawyer Oleksandra Matviichuk heads the Center for Civil Liberties, which won the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize for its work documenting Russian war crimes. She speaks with Stop the World about her hopes that Vladimir Putin and other powerful Russians can be held accountable for their human rights abuses against Ukrainians.

Oleksandra also talks about Ukraine’s resilience and morale, the need for a just peace, the collapse of the international order, her organisation’s work documenting more than 84,000 Russian war crimes, the need for a new approach to international justice, and why Ukraine is fighting not just for itself but for all of us … and for the future of the free world.