Sir Lawrence Freedman on the delusions that plague war planners

Wars are easy to start, hard to end and are often launched with political goals that are loftier than the planning and capabilities that are committed. In today’s episode, Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London, talks about the “short war fallacy” and why strategists keep planning for quick victories when long and costly conflicts are demonstrably the norm.

Lawrence discusses Putin’s misjudged invasion of Ukraine, the way forward—and significant obstacles—for Kyiv, Moscow and Washington, other long conflicts around the globe including those in Africa and what Xi Jinping might be thinking about Taiwan.

He explains how mass remains a key factor in warfare, and the ways in which new technology and old realities converge to create layers in modern warfighting. He caps off with some thoughts on nuclear strategy and the recent flareup between India and Pakistan.

You can read Lawrence’s recent Foreign Affairs Article, “The Age of Forever Wars: Why Minister Strategy No Longer Delivers Victory”.

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And read his substack here.

What satellites reveal about the clash over Kashmir. With Nathan Ruser

ASPI’s geospatial analyst Nathan Ruser reveals what he’s found by studying satellite imagery of the recent India-Pakistan clashes over Kashmir, in a special episode of Stop the World. This includes use of images for disinformation in ways he hasn’t seen before in his years of poring over satellite pictures geolocation data.

Alongside the military clashes the Indian and Pakistani governments, and their respective supporters, have been battling in the information domain, a typical pattern that is becoming ever more competitive with new technology, especially generative artificial intelligence.

Nathan’s globally recognised skills as a geospatial analyst are put to full use in this episode that will be useful to anyone interested in South Asia, disinformation, deepfakes, AI and nuclear stability.

Ahmed Kodouda on the spiralling war and humanitarian crisis in Sudan

Ahmed Kodouda on the spiralling war and humanitarian crisis in Sudan

The war that has gripped Sudan for more than two years and cost 150,000 lives is a shifting mosaic of alliances and rivalries, lumped under two main groups. There’s the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Force, led respectively by two men who were once allies but are now locked in a titanic power struggle that has displaced 13 million people and is causing widespread famine.

Today we’re joined by Ahmed Kodouda, a humanitarian policy and operations expert who’s worked with NGOs, governments, and international institutions around the world. He also served as a senior advisor to Sudan’s civilian-led transitional government following the country’s democratic uprising in 2019.

Ahmed explains the complexities of the conflict, the groups involved, the background, the impact on the country’s roughly 50 million people, the influence of outside countries in particular the United Arab Emirates, and the inadequate response of the international community.

Show notes

Foreign Affairs article, “Sudan is unravelling”, by Mai Hassan and Ahmed Kodouda

Special episode: Will India and Pakistan go nuclear? With Raji Rajagopalan

After Pakistan-based militants murdered more than two dozen Indian tourists in Pahalgam in Kashmir, India retaliated by striking nine sites it says housed “terrorist infrastructure”. Pakistan in turn says it shot down several Indian fighter planes.

In this special snap episode, ASPI Resident Senior Fellow Raji Pillai Rajagopalan gives us her insights on whether the two nuclear armed arch rivals will bring the crisis temperature down and avoid the ultimate nightmare—escalation that goes nuclear.

Mentioned in this episode: 

India and Pakistan must manage escalation after Pahalgam attack, by Raji Rajagopalan

X thread by Nathan Ruser

The FT’s Demetri Sevastopulo on Trump’s tariffs and the disappearing Chinese general

The United States-China tit-for-tat tariffs have been escalating faster than the bids at a Sydney house auction in the early 2010s. ‘Trade war’ is the headline. But does Donald Trump have a strategy to decouple, or is he angling for a grand bargain? Either way, Xi Jinping is making it clear that China has a vote (even if its people don’t).

Demetri Sevastopulo, the Financial Times’ US-China correspondent, explains the possible plays behind the numbers, the rival points of leverage in the brewing trade war, the implications for US partners and allies, the competition for influence within the Trump administration, and the latest on TikTok and Taiwan.

Demetri also gives us a real-time analysis of his latest scoop in the FT, revealing the purging of the PLA’s number two general, He Weidong.

The road to artificial general intelligence, with Helen Toner

Australian AI expert Helen Toner is the Director of Strategy and Foundational Research Grants at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). She also spent two years on the board of OpenAI, which put her at the centre of the dramatic events in late 2023 when OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was briefly sacked before being reinstated.

David Wroe speaks with Helen about the curve humanity is on towards artificial general intelligence—which will be equal to or better than humans at everything—progress with the new “reasoning” models; the arrival of China’s DeepSeek; the need for regulation; democracy and AI; and the risks of AI.

They finish by discussing what will life be like if we get AI right and it solves all our problems for us? Will it be great, or boring?

Bringing Russia’s war criminals to justice, with Nobel Prize winner Oleksandra Matviichuk

Ukrainian human rights lawyer Oleksandra Matviichuk heads the Center for Civil Liberties, which won the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize for its work documenting Russian war crimes. She speaks with Stop the World about her hopes that Vladimir Putin and other powerful Russians can be held accountable for their human rights abuses against Ukrainians.

Oleksandra also talks about Ukraine’s resilience and morale, the need for a just peace, the collapse of the international order, her organisation’s work documenting more than 84,000 Russian war crimes, the need for a new approach to international justice, and why Ukraine is fighting not just for itself but for all of us … and for the future of the free world.

Vladimir Putin is taking the peace, with Peter Tesch

During a two hour phone call this week with US President Donald Trump, Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin did what everyone expected—he raised impossible demands, promised next to nothing, and generally made a mockery of Trump’s patience. 

Australia’s former Ambassador to Russia and Germany Peter Tesch speaks with David Wroe about the dynamic between Trump and Putin, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s perilous place in the middle, Ukraine’s courageous fight for global democracy, the future of European security, the shape of a new world in which major powers carve out spheres of influence, and Australia’s defence investment with the budget and election looming. Peter and David also discuss gaps in their reading habits.

What’s happening in Syria, with Aaron Zelin

Syria has been front and centre in the news in recent days, with international agencies saying that hundreds and perhaps thousands have been killed – many of them civilians – in the coastal regions of the country.

In today’s podcast, David Wroe speaks to Aaron Zelin, the Gloria and Ken Levy Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, about developments in Syria since the fall of the Assad dynasty in December. They discuss the political and security situation in Syria, including leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and the basis of his power. They consider life for ordinary Syrians, the question of justice for victims of the former regime, how the various factions fit together and Syria’s relations with the region and the world.

Europe steps up, with Constanze Stelzenmüller

Constanze Stelzenmüller, expert on German, European, and trans-Atlantic foreign and security policy and strategy at the Brookings Institution, gives Stop the World her short take on the remarkable sense of urgency that Europe is displaying in building its own security capabilities: “I’ve never seen anything like this in my life.”

Her longer answer is a superb dissection of the radical reorientation coming out of the Trump administration—what she calls a “Yalta 2.0”; the likelihood that much of the world might have other ideas, leading a frustration of Trump’s instincts; Europe’s shortening patience for the skulduggery of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán; its need to keep the US engaged in Europe’s security; and ultimately the proper sense that Europe has accepted the need to step up to defend Ukraine and itself over the longer term.

Her conclusion: “I think we might all have to sort of buckle our seat belts.”