ASPI Publications

Two steps forward, one step back: Indonesia's arduous path of reform

Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Australians have long worried about whether Indonesia is ‘special’ or ‘normal’. Instead, we need to deal with Indonesia as it really is—a country experiencing simultaneously the challenges of political reform, economic development and a shifting regional security environment. The country’s political future is less certain than we would hope: after SBY’s term of government ends, the choice of a successor will be critical in determining the future of reform. We can’t rule out that Indonesia might slide back to old ways of doing business—democratisation is a fraught process.

As the Indonesian economy grows, so too do the prospects for Indonesia to establish its natural position as the leader of Southeast Asia. As the world is re-examining Indonesia, so too Indonesia is looking afresh at the world—more interested in external issues than it was a decade ago. The Southeast Asian subregion increasingly finds itself at the centre of a more strongly interconnected Indo-Pacific region—so Indonesia’s strategic importance is going up.

It’s important for Australia to build a better strategic relationship with Indonesia. The two are complementary partners. Australia should be proactive in exploring new opportunities for cooperation with a reform minded Indonesia—it’s in our interests to draw Indonesia into a more important strategic role in regional security.

Professor Damien Kingsbury, the author of this Strategy, is the Director, Centre for Citizenship, Development and Human Rights, Faculty of Arts and Education, Deakin University, Melbourne.

Taiwan election result—questions answered, questions raised by Roslyn Richardson

Mon, 23 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Leaders in Washington, Beijing and Canberra breathed a quiet sigh of relief when Taiwanese President Ma Ying Jeou was elected for a second term on 14 January. Ma’s re-election will see him continue to propel Taiwan along a path that has seen the island forge its strongest relationship with the mainland since the end of the civil war in 1949.

The continuation of Ma’s presidency grants Australia a little more space to continue its pursuit of a complicated high wire act – balancing its relationship with its most important ally (the US) on the one hand and its most important trading partner (China) on the other. This Policy Analysis considers the implications of the election result for Taiwan, China, the US and Australia.

US counter-radicalisation strategy: the ideological challenge by Lydia Khalil

Wed, 11 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

The death of Osama bin Laden and the emergence of the Arab Spring has de-emphasised many political grievances that have driven terrorist attacks in the past. However, jihadist ideology still presents a potent form of rebellion against alienation and US foreign policy. Until the ideology itself, not just its adherents and organisations, is directly challenged, individuals will continue to radicalise and the violent Islamic extremist threat will remain.

In this Policy Analysis, Lydia Khalil examines US counter-radicalisation strategy and outlines specific recommendations to counter the ideology behind violent domestic terrorism.

Special Report Issue 44 - Japan's strategic outlook

Fri, 16 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

Japan has endured a difficult couple of decades, but probably confronts another. With its economy stalled, its political system still evolving towards a genuine multiparty system, and its population ageing and shrinking, it confronts a daunting array of domestic challenges. The great East Asian earthquake of March has only added to its problems. The after-effects will be felt for years, not least in the continuing nuclear problems at Fukushima. Those challenges mean Japan will probably remain an introverted strategic player during the next decade or so. Arguments made by a range of commentators about five years ago, that Japan had entered a critical ‘turning point’ in its strategic policy, now seem less compelling.

For Australia, the challenge is how to partner with that inward-looking Japan over the next ten-to-fifteen years. The pace of change in Asian strategic settings is such that much may change during that period. And there aren’t many Japan-sized players in the regional system, so we have to work to ensure that the one we already have remains committed to shared objectives to the greatest extent possible. We need to ‘work with’ Japan, perhaps bringing more ourselves to the relationship to offset Japan’s period of hesitancy. But we might also need a ‘work around’ strategy—accepting that we need to do more with others to compensate for Japan’s strategic hesitancy. Australia wants an Asia with a range of engaged great powers—and Japan is an important part of that future Asia.’

Dr Rod Lyon, Director of ASPI’s Strategy and International Program, is the author of this report.

Beyond bin Laden: Future trends in terrorism

Thu, 15 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

This Strategy report examines the shifting patterns of global terrorism. It is the first major ASPI report on terrorism since the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011. The report provides a comprehensive assessment of the geographic, operational and ideological trends that are driving the current wave of jihadist terrorism around the world. Those trends point to the increasing diversification of the threat, as a new generation of terrorist leaders in South Asia, North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula adapt and reinterpret al-Qaeda’s ideology.

The paper argues that new patterns of global terrorism will require more agile and effective policy responses. For Australia, the focus of counter-terrorism and counter-radicalisation efforts must shift towards the three areas most at risk from the influence of al-Qaeda’s ideology – individuals, institutions and the internet.

The paper was written by Carl Ungerer, Director of ASPI’s National Security Program.

The phantom of the Pacific: reconsidering Russia as a Pacific power prior to APEC–2012 by Alexey Muraviev

Thu, 08 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

Moscow recognises that the Asia – Pacific – Indian Ocean region (APIOR) is one of growing economic and political value for Russia, and is re-engaging with the region as a result. Alexey Muraviev considers the driving geopolitical, economic and military-strategic forces behind Russia’s current strategic fixation with the APIOR, the implications of this for the region, and provides some key recommendations for Australian policymakers.

Special Report Issue 43 - More than good deeds: Disaster risk management and Australian, Japanese and US Defence forces

Tue, 06 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

This report, authored by Athol Yates and Anthony Bergin, suggests that Asia–Pacific states need to allocate greater resources to risk reduction activities and increase the speed and effectiveness of relief efforts.

Australia, Japan and the US are active in promoting disaster risk management as a key component of their Asia–Pacific relations and regional military engagement strategies.

This report argues that the three states’ militaries will continue to play an increasing role across the disaster risk management spectrum.

The primary justification for dispatching defence forces to help another country experiencing a disaster is usually humanitarian.

But for Australia, Japan and the US, there are several other drivers: reinforcing alliances and partnerships, advancing foreign policy agendas and providing knowledge of operational military capabilities.
To better match the three nations’ defence forces’ disaster assistance capabilities with government expectations, the report recommends:

Governments should publicly identify the benefits of using their defence forces in disaster risk management activities.
All three military forces should integrate the key drivers for their use in disaster risk management activities into strategic guidance, doctrine, force structure and capability development.
Defence forces and other stakeholders should seek to moderate government and public expectations about the use of the military in disaster risk management activities by identifying the costs and benefits of that involvement.
Defence forces should produce a list of options for government that covers both disaster relief and disaster risk reduction activities that they could undertake.
The defence forces of the three countries should establish a regular trilateral dialogue to share lessons learned in disaster risk management and improve trilateral and multilateral military cooperation during and after disasters.

Watch a video of Anthony Bergin discussing this paper on ASPI's YouTube channel.

Strategic Insights 54 - Keeping the home fires burning: Australia's energy security

Thu, 01 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

In this paper, Andrew Davies and Edward Mortimer look at Australia's energy security. Energy is the lifeblood of modern economies. The correlation between energy consumption and prosperity is strong—and that's unlikely to change. Those simple observations have some profound implications.

Australia, like all modern economies, needs an assured supply of energy to function effectively. As a net exporter of energy, Australia is well placed in most respects. But we are still reliant on external sources of oil. The first part of this report examines Australia's vulnerability to interruptions in the oil supply over the next few years.

Over the next couple of decades, externalities will reshape the world market for energy. In particular, the sources of oil will be increasingly concentrated in the hands of OPEC producers. At the same time, greatly increased consumption of energy by the developing economies of India and China will increasingly concentrate consumption in non-OECD countries. So the mechanisms for managing world energy markets—such as the International Energy Agency—will increasingly reflect a historic view of energy production and consumption. The second part of the paper looks at mechanisms by which Australia and other developed economies can adjust to the new realities.

The last part of the paper looks at the potential for renewable energy to meet a substantial proportion of Australian and global energy requirements. The conclusion is that current technologies are unlikely to meet demand.

Our near abroad: Australia and Pacific islands regionalism

Wed, 30 Nov 2011 00:00:00 GMT

This report, authored by Richard Herr and Anthony Bergin, suggests that with rising Chinese influence in the region, the US appears to doubt that Australia can deliver on South Pacific issues.

The Pacific Island members of the United Nations now meet under the rubric of the Pacific Small Islands Developing States that excludes Australia.

The Melanesian Spearhead Group has backed fellow member Fiji against Australian sanctions. The MSG doesn’t include Australia.

Australia is losing influence over collective decision-making in the South Pacific.

Australia should re-gather the threads of regional leadership.

The report makes recommendations to achieve this including: establishing a regional maritime coordination centre; encouraging Chinese participation in regional law enforcement; repairing our relationship with Fiji; providing funding to the MSG Secretariat; introducing a scheme for permanent migration from the smaller island states; assessing the practicality of a regional insurance scheme for natural disasters; including the fisheries sector in our Pacific seasonal worker pilot scheme; offering a program of scholarships to talented Islander children to attend boarding schools in Australia; introducing a Colombo Plan for the Pacific islands; creating an Office of Sport and Diplomacy within DFAT to bring together the people of the Pacific through sport; establishing a Pacific islands studies institute here; and ensuring that a Pacific islands posting is part of a complete Australian diplomatic career.

You can watch Anthony Bergin discussing this paper on ASPI's YouTube channel.

National Security Note 4: Cybersecurity: the view from Washington by Carl Ungerer

Wed, 16 Nov 2011 00:00:00 GMT

October was cybersecurity month in Washington. On Capitol Hill and in several think tanks around town, US policymakers and analysts focused on various aspects of the cybersecurity problem, from the nature and scale of global cyber threats, to the possible commercial, diplomatic and military responses.

Following the September AUSMIN talks in which cybersecurity was added to the ANZUS alliance treaty arrangements, the direction of this debate in Washington has taken on a new importance. The outcome of these discussions will influence how both Canberra and Washington now operationalise their alliance responsibilities. This paper gives a summary of the main issues to emerge from those discussions.

From July to December 2011, Carl is participating in a Fellowship with the Center for Australian & New Zealand Studies at Georgetown University in Washington DC. He will be producing regular National Security Notes to provide ‘on-the-ground’ insight into the national security challenges and opportunities facing the United States during this time.