Australian Strategic Policy Institute News

Ministerial indecision blamed for sub burden

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 00:00:00 GMT

The plan for a replacement to the Collins class submarines to be designed, built and tested by 2025 will not happen until at least 2032, Rear-Admiral Rowan Moffitt, the head of the future submarine program, has said. ASPI's Andrew Davies said the delays were "due to decisions not being made by government - but, no the other hand, I don't believe the quality of information needed to make a decision has been available... The Government has not made obtaining that information a priority."

Carr sinks cheap subs

Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00:00 GMT

New Defence Materiel Minister Kim Carr said yesterday no existing models of submarines from overseas were suitable for the Navy because they would need to be modified to meet Australia's defence needs. Senator Carr's comments came as an Australian Strategic Policy Institute paper, Should Australia build warships?, warned no credible case had been made for continuing any naval construction in Australia. The paper said that with $40 billion in navy vessels planned over the next 20 years, there are few proven economic or security benefits and substantial costs to building military vessels in Australia. A 2009 ASPI paper which estimated 12 European subs could be bought for as little as $9 billion compared with $36 billion for an Australian design and build sparked a fierce debate in the defence community.

Navy plans questioned

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Australia will probably be throwing away billions of dollars if it builds new naval vessels here as part of a misguided attempt to retain a local industry, according to infrastructure economist Henry Ergas. Mr Ergas co-wrote Should Australia build warships? with ASPI's Mark Thomson and Andrew Davies.

Our vulnerable north

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 00:00:00 GMT

While Paul Dibb is relieved that Defence has got its eye back on the ball, Hugh White is unconvinced that we need to be doing more in the north west than we are currently doing.
The proposal to boost Australia's military presence in the north will pose a new personnel challenge for the ADF.
"Just imagine you are posted to a major ADF facility up there and you look across the fence and see people getting paid three times as much working for Rio Tinto," says Andrew Davies of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

Defence plan a potential minefield

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Moving bases to defend resources in the nation's north will be expensive, writes Andrew Davies.

Key positions announced at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Peter Jennings, currently the Deputy Secretary for Strategy with the Department of Defence, has been selected to be the new Executive Director of ASPI following the retirement in April of the incumbent, Major General Peter Abigail (Retd).

ASPI is one of Australia’s leading public policy think-tanks. It is an independent, non-partisan policy institute established by the government to provide fresh ideas on Australia's defence and strategic policy choices.

“Peter was selected for the Executive Director’s position after an extensive global search process,” said Mr Stephen Loosley, Chairman of the ASPI Council. “The Government has now confirmed the appointment.”

“I am pleased to welcome Peter to this position,” Mr Loosley said. “He is a very experienced strategist having worked at the highest levels of Defence and Government over many years.”

“I know that he will bring high quality leadership and analytical skills to ASPI, and further build on the solid reputation of the Institute.”

“I also want to thank Peter Abigail, who is the outgoing ASPI Executive Director,” Mr Loosley said. “Peter Abigail has served ASPI with distinction over the last seven years. He has steered the Institute through a period of significant change and growth, including successfully renegotiating ASPI’s financial agreement with the Department of Defence. Under Peter’s leadership ASPI has cemented its leading role in defence and strategic policy thinking in Australia and been recognised as one of the world’s leading security and international affairs think tanks,” Mr Loosley said.

The Government has also extended Stephen Loosley’s term as Chairman of the ASPI Council.

“I am pleased to serve in this capacity,” Mr Loosley said. “At a time of international change Australia faces a growing range of strategic challenges. ASPI can play an important role in improving the quality of Australia’s strategic policy thinking.”

“I am looking forward to working with Peter Jennings on continuing to strengthen ASPI’s influence and putting forward new strategic thinking for Australia,” Mr Loosley said.

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Note: Peter Jennings bio is available here. Peter Jennings will not be available for interview until he leaves the Defence Department and starts at ASPI in late April. We will advise the media on his availability. Mr Loosley is available for interview at the following number: 02 6270 5110

You can also read the press release from the Minister for Defence here.

Peter Jennings to be the new head of ASPI

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Stephen Smith, Minister for Defence announced the appointment of Mr Peter Jennings as the new Executive Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

Defence posture plan could face infrastructure problems

Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

ASPI's Andrew Davies says Defence's plan to have a stronger military presence along Western Australia's north west coast in order to protect mining assets might be easier said than done because the mining industry has a monopoly on some types of infrastructure in the state's north.

Two steps forward, one step back: Indonesia's arduous path of reform

Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has released a new publication titled ‘Two steps forward, one step back: Indonesia’s arduous path of reform’. Launching the publication, ASPI Executive Director, Peter Abigail, noted that it had been some time since the Institute last wrote upon the topic of Indonesia, and the latest assessment provided a valuable overview of developments in Australia’s large neighbour.

The publication, written by Professor Damien Kingsbury of Deakin University, says Australians have long worried about whether Indonesia is ‘special’ or ‘normal’. Instead, we need to deal with Indonesia as it really is—a country experiencing simultaneously the challenges of political reform, economic development and a shifting regional security environment. The country’s political future is less certain than we would hope: after SBY’s term of government ends, the choice of a successor will be critical in determining the future of reform. We can’t rule out that Indonesia might slide back to old ways of doing business—democratisation is a fraught process.

As the Indonesian economy grows, so too do the prospects for Indonesia to establish its natural position as the leader of Southeast Asia. As the world is re-examining Indonesia, so too Indonesia is looking afresh at the world—more interested in external issues than it was a decade ago. The Southeast Asian subregion increasingly finds itself at the centre of a more strongly interconnected Indo-Pacific region—so Indonesia’s strategic importance is going up.

It’s important for Australia to build a better strategic relationship with Indonesia. The two are complementary partners. Australia should be proactive in exploring new opportunities for cooperation with a reform minded Indonesia—it’s in our interests to draw Indonesia into a more important strategic role in regional security.

Professor Damien Kingsbury is the Director, Centre for Citizenship, Development and Human Rights, Faculty of Arts and Education, Deakin University, Melbourne.

(ENDS)

A better understanding of Indonesia will forge closer ties

Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

This opinion piece by Damien Kingsbury points out that at a time of unprecedented good relations with Indonesia, Australia is now looking to its future. Indonesia's shift towards a more open democratic framework has allowed the previously troubled relationship to stabilise, but its future remains uncertain, especially over the medium to longer term. Damien Kingsbury is the author of Two steps forward, one step back: Indonesia's arduous path of reform.

Military and mines in Australia's north west

Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Andrew Davies of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute speaks with ABC News 24's Kim Landers about a higher degree of visibility of the Australian Defence Force in the north west. Davies says more than anything, the issue is about building confidence in the resources industry that the ADF could be there if needed.

ADF faces competition from mining boom

Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

ASPI's Andrew Davies spoke with the ABC's Mark Colvin about the ADF facing competition from rich resources companies in the battle for skilled workers and access to infrastructure. Davies says the Defence Department can take a lesson from the mining industry in how it operates which would make the defence forces more visible but wouldn't require a 'bigger footprint'.

Australia may need to double Super Hornet fleet

Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

After the US government announced further delays to the Joint Strike Fighter project, Australia may need to look to purchasing more Super Hornets to plug a potential capability gap, says Andrew Davies of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

$500b to be cut from US defence budget

Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Half a trillion will be cut from the US defence budget, but ASPI's Andrew Davies says the good news for Australia is that the Asia-Pacific will remain a priority.

US fighter turmoil, 100,000 troops cut

Sat, 28 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Australia's biggest defence project, the $16 billion Joint Strike Fighter, has been thrown into turmoil after the US Defense Department announced major cuts to the stealth fighter program. ASPI's Andrew Davies said the delay of the JSF project to allow for more testing was a big worry.

Lacking an agenda, the Government drifts with the tide

Sat, 28 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

ASPI's Andrew Davies poses rigorous questions around the mission the submarines are required for. Why not buy a asmaller, cheaper vessel? What's the strategic imperative to operate in the South China Sea? Is it really plausible to suggest we'd deploy boats in North Asian waters if they couldn't refit at the major US base in Guam?

Spy-hole on our intelligence agencies leaves us guessing

Sat, 28 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Australians might have more realistic expectations of our spymasters if they were better informed. ASPI's Carl Ungerer has previously written: "Despite teh increased levels of funding, there is no systematic way to examine public expenditures on counter-terrorism in Australia. Governments have not settled on a specific formula for assessing the overall success or failure in the 'war on terror'."

Fijian progress muddied by the media

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

An opinion piece by Ratu Inoke Kubuabola, Fiji's Minister for Foreign Affairs. As Richard Herr and Anthony Bergin wrote earlier this month: "Fiji is getting on with new relationships what are less and less connected with Australia's interests in the Pacific islands region." Fiji has taken steps to grow and diversify its economy and relationships with the threat of another global economic shock looming on the horizon.

US delays purchase of F-35s

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

The US has announces that it is putting off the purchase of its full fleet of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters until more testing can be done. ASPI's Andrew Davies speaks with ABC News 24 about potential ongoing future maintenance costs for older Australian planes.

Delays and cost overruns on horizon for JSF

Mon, 23 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Andrew Davies of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute says that the Joint Strike Fighter program was initially sold on overly optimistic promises of low costs and early delivery.

US strike fighter delay to cost $50m

Mon, 23 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

ASPI capability analyst Andrew Davies said it was inevitable partner countries would face price rises for the JSF if the US delayed some of its orders.

Govt adrift on manufacturing - from cars to submarines

Sat, 21 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Fighting the cost of war

Wed, 18 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

The war in Afghanistan will cost Australia more than $1 billion next year. Defence expert at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute Andrew Davies said public opposition to the war, revealed in polling, was stronger than in the Vietnam war, but it didn't translate into action. ASPI budget expert Mark Thomson said the cost was not a big issue because people were more concerned about the lives of soldiers.

Subs an unknown force, say analysts

Tue, 17 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

The Gillard government is considering purchasing Japanese submarines to replace the troubled Collins class, but defence experts warn that specific details are hard to come by. Sean Costello, co-author of a 2009 ASPI report on the potential cost of replacing Australia's Collins-class subs, said yesterday that while the Japanese sub was "definitely worth investigating... not a lot is known about what's under the skin". ASPI's Andrew Davies said it was likely there had been exchanges between the Australian and Japanese navies, and noted that most countries are pretty secretive about the capabilities of their submarines.

Japanese subs on Navy menu

Sat, 14 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Australia could turn to Japan for its next generation of submarines after Tokyo moved to end a 45-year0-old ban on military exports to boost its ailing economy. The buy could be up to 30 per cent cheaper than building subs at Adelaide-shipbuilder ASC. "It would be a trade-off between getting a capability at less risk and in less time versus the political impact of the job losses in South Australia," said Andrew Davies of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, who believes the government should seriously consider buying the subs off the shelf.

Our fatally flawed policy on Fiji

Fri, 13 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

We should give Frank Bainimarama some credit for his steps towards democracy, write Anthony Bergin and Richard Herr in this opinion piece.

Cost of new fighters still up in the air: Defence

Wed, 11 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Only time will tell if US defence budget cuts totalling almost $500 billion are going to drive up the cost of Australia's Joint Strike Fighters, Defence says. While Defence Minister Stephen Smith has repeatedly said the fallback option, in the event of a possible capability gap, is to buy more Super Hornets, ASPI's Andrew Davies does not believe more Super Hornets are the only answer. In a recent paper, What's Plan B? , he wrote, "If an additional gap of a year or two was to transpire [a second] 'classic' Hornet life extension is probably the least bad option".

Cuts to US defence trigger fear of jet cost blowout

Sat, 07 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

The multibillion-dollar defence cuts in the US announced by President Barack Obama this week mean the cost to Australia of the Joint Strike Fighter will spiral even higher, according to former defence minister Joel Fitzgibbon. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute's Andrew Davies said that while rising costs was an issue, of greater concern was further delay to production.

Australia may do more in alliance with US

Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

US President Barack Obama's announcement of a new military strategy signals a change in Australia's role in the US alliance. Rod Lyon of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute says that Australia may need to play a bigger part in the alliance than it has in the past.

US defence spending and military presence in Asia

Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

ABC radio speak with ASPI's Dr Rod Lyon about US President Barack Obama's announcement of a leaner US military and an increased US military presence in the Asia-Pacific region. Dr Lyon says that while US spending on defence will slow, Australia will face increased pressure to do more in the Asia-Pacific region.

Pentagon cuts could boost JSF outlay

Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

US plans to expand firepower in the Asia-Pacific region, including stationing thousands of extra troops in Australia, have been quarantined from drastic Pentagon defence cuts announced by the Obama administration overnight. ASPI operations and capability program director Andrew Davies said the cuts were "pretty drastic" and even if the Republicans won power it was unlikely the Pentagon would get all the funding restored.

Leaked submarine figure doesn't account for full costs

Thu, 05 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Leaked claims 12 Australian designed and built future submarines could cost as little as $18 billion do not take into account the overall program cost and could cost double that, according to defence analysts. That would correspond almost exactly with the $36 billion cost estimate put forward in an Australian Strategic Policy Institute paper.

Security community looks to PM for clearer direction

Thu, 05 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

A gaping void at the heart of the national security community is being created by the government's inability to fill six of the area's top positions, including the critical position of national security adviser, which has remained vacant for six months.
"The appointment [of the NSA] is being batted around in the bureaucracy to be presented as a fait accompli to Gillard, when it should be a top-down, cabinet-directed process," Australian Strategic Policy Institute national security expert Carl Ungerer said.

So much for helping the island states

Thu, 05 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Eliminating the red tape and raising the Pacific Seasonal Worker Pilot Scheme's profile though a visible and credible industry champion would help, writes Anthony Bergin.

Managing the Indian Ocean

Thu, 05 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

An opinion piece by Anthony Bergin.

The recent visit to Australia by U.S. President Barack Obama, the APEC meeting in Honolulu and the East Asia Summit in Bali all overshadowed a meeting in November of an extraordinary international organisation of 19 states from Asia, Africa and Oceania.

Officials from the countries, who gathered in Bengaluru, India, are united by their common interests in sharing the world’s third-largest ocean. Yet with the aphabet soup of regional bodies that now exists, few have heard of the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (or its unpronounceable acronym of IOR-ARC), despite it being more than a decade old. Read more...

Australia should build own subs, report says

Tue, 03 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

An American military think tank says Australia should design and build its own submarine. The Rand Corporation report was conducted between 2009 and 2010, and was made public last month.
"The fact they [Defence] have released it at all should be seen as evidence the shape of the future submarine is being thought about seriously," said Andrew Davies of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

Unchecked cargo stirs fears

Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Millions of shipping containers, which in some cases have been used by organised criminal networks to move illegal goods including luxury vehicles, car parts and e-waste, are leaving the nation's ports every year unchecked by customs officials. Anthony Bergin and Sam Bateman from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute raised the issue six years ago in a report titled Future unknown: the terrorist threat to Australian maritime security.

Sailing into deep water

Sat, 31 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

2012 is shaping up to be the year of the submarine, with Defence already well behind schedule in deciding just how it will spend up to $40 billion on an Australian-built future submarine to replace the Collins class. ASPI's Andrew Davies cautions against writing off the 'son of Collins' option, and believes the practical and political obstacles to a nuclear boat, for which some are advocating, are insurmountable in the short term.

New dawn in Antarctic awareness

Sat, 31 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

It is time our strategic planners looked south to the forgotten continent, say Anthony Bergin and Sam Bateman in this opinion piece.

Contractor harpoons submarine estimates

Wed, 28 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

A major Australian defence contractor has sponsored a leaked paper which claims it would cost less than half the $36 billion experts say it will take to design and build submarines in Adelaide. ASPI's Andrew Davies does not believe 12 locally designed submarines can be built in Adelaide for $18 billion - or anything close to that.

Build new subs here

Tue, 27 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

South Australian Defence Industries Minister Jack Snelling says a "home-grown" submarine fleet must be pursued in the national interest. A leaked report by the Kokoda Foundation says the long-range subs could be delivered for $18 billion. ASPI's Andrew Davies believes the subs will cost $36 billion, and says that simply reproducing Collins class-style subs would cost about $17 billion alone.

Sceptical response to $18bn sub fleet

Tue, 27 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

Submariners and military experts have rejected claims that Australia could build a new fleet fo 12 state-of-the-art submarines for only $18 billion, saying taxpayers need to be warned that the final costs could be far higher. The figure appears in a report, Australia's Future Submarine, by the Kokoda Foundation, and is half the expect5ed cost of building a new fleet of submarines in Adelaide.
Former submariner Sean Costello and ASPI program director Andrew Davies co-wrote a report in 2009 which said a new fleet would cost approximately $36 billion.

Half-price super subs tempt navy

Mon, 26 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

Australia can build a new fleet of 12 state-of-the-art subs in Adelaide for $18 billion, less than half the cost of initial estimates, according to a report to be released next month by the Kokoda Foundation. The report estimates that it would only cost $18bn to build a dozen homegrown submarines rather than the previously published cost estimate of up to $36bn predicted in 2009 by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

Govt urged to steer clear of old US ships

Mon, 26 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

As Defence Minister Stephen Smith approved the acquisition of a "third amphibious vessel", the government has been warned off spending taxpayers' dollars on a dilapidated American landing ship well past its prime - regardless of how cheap it is. Andrew Davies of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute said it was unlikely the government was considering another ex-military vessel. "I'm guessing the minister has his eye on a civilian fast ferry," Davies said.

Uncertainty over N Korea's new leader

Wed, 21 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

There is an 80 per cent chance North Korea's latest dynastic leader, Kim Jong-un, will retain power, Rod Lyon of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute believes.

Japan losing influence in Asia: report

Wed, 21 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

A report from independent think tank the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has found Tokyo is "slipping off the radar" in Asia.

Aircraft makers do battle over cost of contract

Wed, 21 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

The tender for as many as 10 battlefield airlifter aircraft to replace the RAAF's DHC-4 Caribou has been underway since September. Defence must choose between the European Airbus Military's C295 and the US-manufactured C-27J Spartan. ASPI's Andrew Davies said Defence will likely choose the US aircraft for a number of reasons, "not least of which is we've had a number of problems getting European aircraft into service over the last few years".

Defence delivery delays hit 63 years in total: report

Wed, 21 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

The combined scheduled delivery delays of defence hardware have blown out to total 63 years, further exposing gaps in Australia's defence capability, according to an Australian National Audit Office report. ASPI's Andrew Davies said the cost and capability of the projects were on target.

No certainty N Korea's new leader will retain power: analysts

Wed, 21 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

There is an 80 per cent chance North Korea's latest dynastic leader, Kim Jong-un, will retain power, Rod Lyon of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute believes.

Analysis: Kim death complicates Obama's N Korea nuclear quandary

Mon, 19 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT

The death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il could dim hopes for fresh nuclear disarmament talks with the United States and its key Asian allies as an untested and largely unknown heir takes charge of one of the world's most feared atomic renegade states.

"The reason people are watching closely is not because we expect the North to strike out, it's because events within North Korea could have unsettling ramifications," said Rod Lyon, strategy and international program director at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.